Only one Grade II event this week, the Mrs. Revere Stakes from Churchill Downs on Saturday. The $175,000 turf test at 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-old fillies is fully subscribed with Miss World and Hot Cha Cha the tepid morning line favorites at 4-1 and 3-1 respectively. The race look up for grabs.

Here’s a brief recap of all 14 Breeders’ Cup races...

BREEDERS’ CUP MARATHON

The winner, Man of Iron was tough to get by normal handicapping processes. Big run from 9-year-old Cloudy’s Knight, winner of the Grade 1 Canadian International two years ago.  Betting favorite Mastery made a late move but couldn’t keep up with the top two in the final stages.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

The two fancied Europeans Lillie Langtry (IRE) and Junia Tepzia (IRE) both failed to fire, turning this race into a high priced Allowance event. The winner Tapitsfly wore down the stubborn pace setter Rose Catherine, who had only won a  maiden race, and took three tries to do that. It was later reported that Lillie Langtry (IRE) was injured in the race and will be out of training until next season.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES

She Be Wild wrapped up the 2-year-old filly championship with a strong win here. Biofuel was making a nice move late in the stretch but was interefered with by Negligee and lost her action. Biofuel might be one to keep an eye on. Blind Luck was forced to go wide in the stretch that seemed to not be the place to be. Ran on but was no match for the winner, also another who may have a bright future.

BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

Defending champion Ventura was outfinished by Informed Decision and those two were clearly best of the rest. Ventura was likely compromised by a perceived early speed bias but take nothing away from the winner who has now won 11 of 13 lifetime.

BREEDERS’ CUP LADIES TURF

Forced to move early on pace setter Visit, who was on the lead and uncontested Jockey John Murtaugh on Midday (GB) moved his 3-year old filly early and made a powerful run from the half mile pole and held off a late challenge by Pure Clan who ran the race of her life. Just a monster effort my Midday (IRE) to beat a pretty strong field that looked evenly matched on paper.

BREEDERS’ CUP LADIES CLASSIC

In an oddly run race, Careless Jewel ran off with jockey Robert Landry literally sprinting to a 9-length lead before tiring badly on the turn. Many will fault Landry for the ride but it wasn’t his fault – the filly just wouldn’t relax. Life Is Sweet had been chasing her stablemate Zenyatta all year, made a last to first dash down the stretch and won going away leaving some pretty nice fillies and mares behind.

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BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF

Apparent speed bias on the Santa Anita turf course continued here. Big run from Bridgetown who set moderate fractions then held on stubbornly, getting outfinished by Pounced and Frankie Dettori. A brilliant ride by Dettori who won this race last year with Donatavum. Interactif, the 2nd betting choice held on for 3rd.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF SPRINT

California Flag was a well-beaten 10th in last year’s running of this same race, forced to go very fast early and fading badly late. This year it was a different story as with a decided lack of early speed in the race jockey Joe Talamo was able to put California Flag on a comfortable lead through a 21.2 first quarter. Once the field crossed the dirt the race was over as he opened up three lengths on the field and finished strong while there was little action from the back of the pack. The mare Gotta Have Her ran huge to get 2nd to make it 1-2 for the California based runners. It seems that horse, rider and trainer all learned something from the experience in 2008 and it was the first Breeders’ Cup victory for all three.

BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT

This was one of the most talked about races on the weekend card. Much was made of 7-5 morning line favorite Zensational’s penchant for breaking a little slow, with many public “handicappers” opting to choose Gayego, who had a race over the track. He went off at 2-1 offering little value in a race where if you threw out the favorite offered a wealth of value. As if almost on cue, Zensational broke slow and was unable to make the lead, effectively ending his hopes of winning. Jockey Eurebio DeSilva on Fatal Bullet kept Zensational boxed in but in doing so used his horse up on the pace and may have cost him any chance of winning. In a thrilling finish, one of the best in recent Breeders’ Cup memory, Cal-bred Dancing in Silks made it two in a row for the California contingent, out-bobbing another Cal-bred Cost of Freedom and an unlucky Gayego.

BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE

Another thrilling finish as Goldolphin finally wins one with Vale of York (GB) over a very unlucky Lookin At Lucky. The difference was the brilliant ride by Dubai jockey Ahmed Ajtani. Lookin At Lucky lost nothing in defeat, expect him to move forward and be one of the early favorites for next year’s Kentucky Derby.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

Pretty much as expected, Goldikova repeated as the Mile champion. Nice patient ride by jockey Olivier Peslier. Trained by Freddie Head, who was the jockey on the great Miesque, also a two time winner of the Mile, Goldikova’s two Cup wins were nearly mirror images of those of Miesque. Last year Goldikova won the Mile with a breathtaking acceleration, similar to Miesque’s dash up the rail in the 1987 Mile. This year, parked outside early, Goldikova had to bide her time and circle the field, similar to the way Miesque won the 1988 Mile.

BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE

Betting favorite Mastercraftsman had a nightmare of a trip, still appeared to have a chance while making a move on the rail but refused and stopped running when asked to move through a hole between the rail and eventual winner Furthest Land.  The winner was claimed by his current connections for $35,000 just over a year ago is now 3 for 3 on synthetic surfaces and brings new meaning to the term horse-for-course.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF

In the smallest field in Breeders’ Cup Turf history, the only questions were how many lengths Presious Passion would open up, and which of the European horses would run catch him. As expected, ‘Passion opened up a 10 length lead, and jockey Elvis Trujillo was able to get him to relax. When the real running started, he had plenty left in the tank and put up a game effort but in the end was outfinished by Conduit, who duplicated his 2008 Breeders’ Cup turf victory.

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

Zenyatta…wow. Let’s leave it at that.  Unless, of course, you’d like to open the debate about Horse of the Year.  Should she win out over Rachel Alexandra?  Post a comment and let us know your opinion.

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TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.

In 1982 John Gaines had a vision – one day, seven championship races bringing together the best horses in the world with all races having a purse of at least $1 Million. In 1984 that dream was realized when the very first Breeders’ Cup Day was held at Hollywood Park. In the 25 years since, one area of consternation to handicappers has been how to rate horses with only foreign race form. For the handicapper used to North American speed ratings, pace handicapping, dirt tracks, and times down the hundredth/second, trying to decipher the form of European horses running on turf courses with varying degrees of size, shape and energy requirements has left many a handicapper scratching his head. Often foreign race data gives only final time, finish position, and course condition.

Trying to rate contenders from Europe and elsewhere, handicappers had to rely on published articles and/or the excellent Timeform ratings. Often it was a guessing game. In the early years of the Breeders’ Cup it was clear that the horses who performed well in Group 1 races worldwide were competitive with North Americans. However there was no clear way to rate all horses using one rating system.

The Development Team at Trackmaster set about to tackle this problem and after years of painstaking research, a breakthrough in the Spring of 2008 led to methods to assign Speed Figures and Class Ratings to most foreign (not run in North America) races. These ratings are on the same scale as the Equibase Speed Figures and Class Ratings used in our North American past performances, so foreign entrants in North American races can now be easily evaluated. More details can be found in a prior blog post.

We’ll take a look at some of the top European contenders in the major 2009 Breeders’ Cup races and how they compare to their North American counterparts. But first a look back at last years Breeders’ Cup Classic:

2008 BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

Europeans ran 1-2 beating the mighty Curlin, and though Curlin’s owner Jess Jackson is convinced it was the Pro Ride artificial surface that got him beat, a quick look at each horse’s last three Speed Figures might tell a different story.

Curlin was the betting favorite. He had beaten just about everything that came his way for the past two years, and his 2008 win in the Dubai World Cup stamped him as perhaps the best dirt horse in the world. Duke of Marmalade was the was the top European male of 2008 but clearly came out of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe worse for wear and ran a dull ninth in the 2008 Classic. Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator were considered top milers in Europe but despite that finshed 1-2 after passing a one-paced Curlin in mid-stretch. For those paying attention to the Equibase Speed Figures, Curlin at 4-5 was a bad bet. Raven’s Pass was certainly playable at 13-1 and paid his backers $29 to win. Henrythenavigator, also a contender on the Equibase Speed Figures, paid $22 to place. A $1 exacta box on the three main European contenders returned $159.80

A similar situation may present itself in the

2009 BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC

The 2009 Classic may draw up to three top European contenders. It may also draw the undefeated filly Zenyatta, whose dominance over her own gender and experience over the Santa Anita Pro Ride surface will give her a home field advantage. On numbers, it would appear that she may be vulnerable and the astute bettor would be advised to try and beat her – under the right conditions. Likewise, the top 3-year old male in North America, Summer Bird, will be well backed here and is by no means a standout.  The Europeans will not be as well-represented in this race as in 2008. The best of the lot, like the 1-2 finishers from 2008  is a miler – Rip Van Winkle (IRE). Lesser fancied, and likely to run in other Cup races are Twice Over (GB) and Mastercraftsman (IRE). Using the same criteria as above (most recent SR listed first), the top contenders in the Classic are:

The numbers say that Rip Van Winkle appears to be the horse to beat, and certainly looks to be the best of the Europeans. Bettors are likely to drive the odds on Zenyatta and Summer Bird down below 5-1. The other two mentioned above are likely to be overlays. And what to make of Twice Over’s 128 earned in his last race? Mastercraftsman may run in the Dirt Mile instead.

For Zenyatta fans, it should be noted that in many of her races the early pace has been excruciatingly slow, which often leads to low final time speed ratings. The pace in the Classic will be honest, and by all accounts Zenyatta should have no problem with the classic 1 1/4 mile distance. However, with jockey Mike Smith’s penchant for moving very wide into the stretch with her, and a much better cast of contenders here, she’s going to have to run the best race of her life to remain (and probably retire) undefeated.

Moving on, here’s a quick look at a two of the other races with multiple European entrants.

2009 BREEDERS CUP TURF

For the 2nd year in a row the Breeders’ Cup Turf will not have a full field. In fact it is possible that this year’s event may have as few as 7 runners led by 2008 Turf winner Conduit (IRE).

Summer Bird will likely go in the Classic. Da Re Mi (GB) is also entered in the Filly & Mare Turf (2nd preference). Clearly the North Americans are up against it here. This will likely be the easiest race on the card to handicap. There is no secret as to how this race will run. Presious Passion goes out, opens up a huge lead and everyone else tries to catch him. Conduit (IRE) and Da Re Mi (GB) are clearly the class of the field and will be the ones chasing ‘Passion home.

2009 BREEDERS CUP MILE

The impressive winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile, Goldikova (IRE), returns to defend her crown. Let’s face facts…at her best, there is no horse in the world that can beat her at a mile. However those who are looking to try have to be encouraged by the fact that she lost her most recent race, the Group 1 Prix de la Foret, without showing her characteristic burst of late speed. Here’s the field:

Awesome Gem and Colonel John have first preference for the Classic. Assuming that those who go for the bigger prize, Goldikova (IRE) again looks to be the one to beat. If she is not the filly she was last year though, the race looks wide open and the Mile is usually one race on the Cup card that is often decided by inches.

Speed and Class Ratings for Foreign Races are a vital in the handicapper’s toolbox. Armed with these exclusive ratings, the handicapper can confidently attack the Breeders’ Cup races and for that matter, any race with an entrant who has not previously raced in North America.

On a related note, we are excited to announce the availability of Timeform reports for Breeders’ Cup days.  Their in-depth commentary and bios for each of the foreign entries will prove to be a valuable tool on days when they expect a record number of horses to be shipping in from across the pond.  Look for these reports in the TrackMaster Winner’s Circle starting on Thursday.

J Stone
TrackMaster Foreign Racing Analyst