In 1982 John Gaines had a vision – one day, seven championship races bringing together the best horses in the world with all races having a purse of at least $1 Million. In 1984 that dream was realized when the very first Breeders’ Cup Day was held at Hollywood Park. In the 25 years since, one area of consternation to handicappers has been how to rate horses with only foreign race form. For the handicapper used to North American speed ratings, pace handicapping, dirt tracks, and times down the hundredth/second, trying to decipher the form of European horses running on turf courses with varying degrees of size, shape and energy requirements has left many a handicapper scratching his head. Often foreign race data gives only final time, finish position, and course condition.

Trying to rate contenders from Europe and elsewhere, handicappers had to rely on published articles and/or the excellent Timeform ratings. Often it was a guessing game. In the early years of the Breeders’ Cup it was clear that the horses who performed well in Group 1 races worldwide were competitive with North Americans. However there was no clear way to rate all horses using one rating system.

The Development Team at Trackmaster set about to tackle this problem and after years of painstaking research, a breakthrough in the Spring of 2008 led to methods to assign Speed Figures and Class Ratings to most foreign (not run in North America) races. These ratings are on the same scale as the Equibase Speed Figures and Class Ratings used in our North American past performances, so foreign entrants in North American races can now be easily evaluated. More details can be found in a prior blog post.

We’ll take a look at some of the top European contenders in the major 2009 Breeders’ Cup races and how they compare to their North American counterparts. But first a look back at last years Breeders’ Cup Classic:

2008 BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

Europeans ran 1-2 beating the mighty Curlin, and though Curlin’s owner Jess Jackson is convinced it was the Pro Ride artificial surface that got him beat, a quick look at each horse’s last three Speed Figures might tell a different story.

Curlin was the betting favorite. He had beaten just about everything that came his way for the past two years, and his 2008 win in the Dubai World Cup stamped him as perhaps the best dirt horse in the world. Duke of Marmalade was the was the top European male of 2008 but clearly came out of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe worse for wear and ran a dull ninth in the 2008 Classic. Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator were considered top milers in Europe but despite that finshed 1-2 after passing a one-paced Curlin in mid-stretch. For those paying attention to the Equibase Speed Figures, Curlin at 4-5 was a bad bet. Raven’s Pass was certainly playable at 13-1 and paid his backers $29 to win. Henrythenavigator, also a contender on the Equibase Speed Figures, paid $22 to place. A $1 exacta box on the three main European contenders returned $159.80

A similar situation may present itself in the

2009 BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC

The 2009 Classic may draw up to three top European contenders. It may also draw the undefeated filly Zenyatta, whose dominance over her own gender and experience over the Santa Anita Pro Ride surface will give her a home field advantage. On numbers, it would appear that she may be vulnerable and the astute bettor would be advised to try and beat her – under the right conditions. Likewise, the top 3-year old male in North America, Summer Bird, will be well backed here and is by no means a standout.  The Europeans will not be as well-represented in this race as in 2008. The best of the lot, like the 1-2 finishers from 2008  is a miler – Rip Van Winkle (IRE). Lesser fancied, and likely to run in other Cup races are Twice Over (GB) and Mastercraftsman (IRE). Using the same criteria as above (most recent SR listed first), the top contenders in the Classic are:

The numbers say that Rip Van Winkle appears to be the horse to beat, and certainly looks to be the best of the Europeans. Bettors are likely to drive the odds on Zenyatta and Summer Bird down below 5-1. The other two mentioned above are likely to be overlays. And what to make of Twice Over’s 128 earned in his last race? Mastercraftsman may run in the Dirt Mile instead.

For Zenyatta fans, it should be noted that in many of her races the early pace has been excruciatingly slow, which often leads to low final time speed ratings. The pace in the Classic will be honest, and by all accounts Zenyatta should have no problem with the classic 1 1/4 mile distance. However, with jockey Mike Smith’s penchant for moving very wide into the stretch with her, and a much better cast of contenders here, she’s going to have to run the best race of her life to remain (and probably retire) undefeated.

Moving on, here’s a quick look at a two of the other races with multiple European entrants.

2009 BREEDERS CUP TURF

For the 2nd year in a row the Breeders’ Cup Turf will not have a full field. In fact it is possible that this year’s event may have as few as 7 runners led by 2008 Turf winner Conduit (IRE).

Summer Bird will likely go in the Classic. Da Re Mi (GB) is also entered in the Filly & Mare Turf (2nd preference). Clearly the North Americans are up against it here. This will likely be the easiest race on the card to handicap. There is no secret as to how this race will run. Presious Passion goes out, opens up a huge lead and everyone else tries to catch him. Conduit (IRE) and Da Re Mi (GB) are clearly the class of the field and will be the ones chasing ‘Passion home.

2009 BREEDERS CUP MILE

The impressive winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile, Goldikova (IRE), returns to defend her crown. Let’s face facts…at her best, there is no horse in the world that can beat her at a mile. However those who are looking to try have to be encouraged by the fact that she lost her most recent race, the Group 1 Prix de la Foret, without showing her characteristic burst of late speed. Here’s the field:

Awesome Gem and Colonel John have first preference for the Classic. Assuming that those who go for the bigger prize, Goldikova (IRE) again looks to be the one to beat. If she is not the filly she was last year though, the race looks wide open and the Mile is usually one race on the Cup card that is often decided by inches.

Speed and Class Ratings for Foreign Races are a vital in the handicapper’s toolbox. Armed with these exclusive ratings, the handicapper can confidently attack the Breeders’ Cup races and for that matter, any race with an entrant who has not previously raced in North America.

On a related note, we are excited to announce the availability of Timeform reports for Breeders’ Cup days.  Their in-depth commentary and bios for each of the foreign entries will prove to be a valuable tool on days when they expect a record number of horses to be shipping in from across the pond.  Look for these reports in the TrackMaster Winner’s Circle starting on Thursday.

J Stone
TrackMaster Foreign Racing Analyst

Although the data was made available back in May, we still get questions regarding the run-up data found in our past performances and charts. The basics of this new data element was discussed in a previous post. Since a full year’s worth of data has now been recorded (Equibase chart callers began recording the run-ups last October), we are now able to incorporate this data to increase the predictive performance of the Equibase Speed Figures and Pace Figures.

The run-up distance can have a large influence when calculating speed figures and especially when calculating pace figures. In the extreme, some run-up distances for the same distance, on the same track and the same surface, can vary widely. This is especially true for the turf races due to the measures taken to protect the grass from getting worn down. At a track such as Laurel Park for example, a mile and a sixteenth race on the turf can have a run-up distance as short as 20 feet and as long as 100 feet. By having the run-up distance recorded, the Equibase Speed Figures and even more so the Pace Figures, can be calculated much more accurately than ever before.

One of the advantages of having an automated process calculate speed figures rather than a real, live person, is that it makes it easier to test and implement any new data elements that are introduced. (Other advantages include the ability to easily create figures for all tracks, consistency in the figure making process, use of mathematical principals to determine unusual Track Variants, and the absence of any personal bias that might cause one to increase a horse’s figure because of the horse’s reputation or the reputation of the horse’s connections.) The good news is that the inclusion of the run-up data in the figure making process, has made the Equibase Speed Figures and Pace Figures more accurate. We are currently in the middle of the process of putting the newly calculated figures in place. We are updating all of the figures from October 1st, 2008 forward. The update should be completed by the end of the week.

This update comes just in time for the Breeders’ Cup and all of the TrackMaster and Equibase products will have the improved figures. The updated figures should help you pick more winners, more often on Breeders’ Cup day and throughout the year.

Craig Walker
TrackMaster Senior Product Development Specialist

We want to hear from you! Leave a comment by clicking the “Comment” link directly below.

TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.

Steve Davidowitz wrote one of the seminal books on handicapping when Betting Thoroughbreds was first published in 1977. The book and its later incarnations remains one of the “must-reads” for anyone aspiring to succeed at the handicapping game. A revised, expanded edition was published in 1995 and just this year Steve published the latest update titled Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century.

Steve has graciously agreed to participate in our Handicapping Series where we pose various questions of industry leaders and professional players. The subject this week is synthetic race tracks.

TrackMaster: Steve , give us some of your views on synthetic tracks and explain how the synthetic surfaces have changed your handicapping process or style, if at all?

Steve Davidowitz: We should all remember that synthetic track manufacturers said these artificial surfaces would require almost “no maintenance,”  that they would be “free from the effects of rain or bad weather” and be “bias free.”

What a joke.

The simple fact is that they are more sensitive to track maintenance than any other track known to man. The people who put them in play are still experimenting with their approaches to keep these tracks from falling apart or becoming hopeless mush. These tracks react radically to rain, humidity and temperature shifts  as well as how much use they get.

Because of climate and weather issues, Del Mar’s Polytrack is different than the Polytrack brand that was installed at Turfway, different from Keeneland and different from Woodbine, or Arlington.

The Pro Ride surface at Santa Anita, which replaced a faulty Cushion track in the winter of 2008 played very fast and yet played to extremely wide rallying track bias during the Breeders’ Cup races last fall.  And there were days during the winter of 2009 that this same track played towards a speed bias or with no bias at all.

Cushion Track at Hollywood played fast, but more like a dirt track after so much sand replaced much of the synthetic mix of fibers, sand and wax polymers. We are now being told that Hollywood has changed the mixture and brought the synthetic track back, to well, a synthetic track. But we’ll see about that and that is the crucial point. Track maintenance is the single most important factor in determining how a synthetic track plays and nothing could prove that more than what happened to the Polytrack installed at Del Mar in 2007, and what changed for ‘08 and ‘09.

After the cool and wet coastal clouds drifted out to sea each morning, the wax melted in the Del Mar surface under the hot summer sun and created one of the slowest main tracks any of us have ever seen. The Grade-1, $1 million Pacific Classic was run in 2:07 and change, a clocking that would be slow for a $5K claiming race at Thistledown.

For 2008 they decided finally to add water to this track to keep the wax polymers cool. That set up a relatively fast surface with a stalk-n-go profile. In 2009 they altered the watering pattern somewhat and the stalker’s profile persisted except for some rally wide days and some speed biased days on a few of the Friday twilight cards conducted in cooler temperatures.

Meanwhile the Tapeta track at Golden Gate Fields and Presque Isle Downs in Pennsylvania played mostly normal as did the Polytrack at Arlington and Woodbine after some early difficulties.

The bottom line is this: As I stated in the chapter on synthetic track handicapping in Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century, the new synthetic tracks are difficult to deal with, but there are patterns that occur that can be believed in and when they do occur, the player who is watching races carefully will catch horses who fit the pattern that others will miss. $20 horses, $40 horses, logical horses under the special conditions you will be dealing with.

Turf bred horses and horses who gained some stamina from longer races and/or longer workouts usually do well on these tracks. Stamina is important on synthetics, even the ones that play blazingly fast. While it is true that most experienced horseplayers wish that we would get rid of the synthetics and go back to dirt,  there are rewards for players who are quick to see what is going on and take accurate trip notes.

The best way I can put this is something I learned a long time ago. The race is not only to the swift on the track, it is to the swift in the grandstand too.

We want to hear from you! Leave a comment by clicking the “Comment” link directly below.

TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.