The Labor Day weekend signals the end of summer and the winding down of the Saratoga and Del Mar meetings. Here’s whats on tap:

Saratoga has two Grade 1 races on Saturday…the $250,000 Forego Stakes features a full field including top sprinters Vineyard Haven, Bribon and Big Drama. Be sure to look for value as anything can happen at 7 furlongs…Last year’s Woodward Stakes was a thriller and we’ve got some big names headed in different directions in the Grade 1 $750,000 event. Expected to go favored big-time is Quality Road despite a recent setback when losing to the up and coming Blame in the Whitney. Without that rival to deal with Quality Road should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 2-5. Perhaps a flyer on Mythical Power might be in order but he’s never had to deal with the likes of the favorite and there just isn’t much in the same class in this race. 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird hasn’t won a race since yet new trainer D. Wayne Lukas puts him in another spot he’s destined to fail.

On Sunday at Del Mar be sure to check out the $300,000 Grade 2 Del Mar Derby, where Twirling Candy, so impressive in winning his four starts to date, including the Oceanside Stakes on opening day, seeks to add to his legacy. This one could be any kind and is still learning the game but could be a superstar in the making…Del Mar closes out it’s meet on Wednesday with the $250,000 Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. The field was not available at the time of writing but usually attracts the top two year olds in the West.

First, let’s take a look at some data from a typical day at the races using Del Mar’s card from Saturday, August 21st, 2010. The following relates to the Pick 3 sequences for races 3 through 10: the pool size, the off-odds plus one for the winner of each leg (the plus one is the original bet), the payoff with the current takeout of 20.68%, the adjusted payoff with the proposed takeout increase of an additional 3% (23.68%), and the $1 Parlay payoff (if one dollar was placed to win on the winner of Leg A and the subsequent winnings placed upon Leg B, and those winnings placed on the winner of Leg C).

To calculate the parlay payoff, the odds plus is multiplied for each leg to get the parlay payoff. For example, the one dollar parlay payoff for the first Pick 3 was calculated as follows: the odds on the first race (Leg A) winner was 1.2 to 1 ($2 payoff of $4.40), thus if one dollar were wagered, $2.20 would be the resulting payoff. This amount is then multiplied by the odds plus one of the next leg winner (2.2 times 2.7), this amount is now 5.94. Now we need to multiply 5.94 times 2.5 to come up with the resulting one dollar parlay amount of $14.85. As you can see, all of the Pick 3 payouts on this day paid more than the parlay. For the day, the average Pick 3 payouts were 1.6 times higher than the equivalent parlay on the same series of races. This happens more often than not, and is one of the advantages a bettor can exploit to make money at the races.

Let’s say we have a skilled, hypothetical handicapper who picks the winner of a race 31% of the time at an average payoff of $5.94. With these results, if he were betting to win every race, he would have a Return On Investment (ROI) of -8%. These results aren’t too shabby when compared to the takeout rate of 15.4% on win bets. Still, he doesn’t really have any incentive to wager from a strictly profitability standpoint since he has a negative ROI. But, this handicapper knows that if he plays the Pick 3, he can make a profit because the takeout of 20.68% is spread across three races rather than just collected in one race. With this in mind, he is able to generate a profit on his wagering without changing anything regarding his selection method. All other things equal, Pick 3 payouts are about 1.35 times better than the payout of a parlay for the same series of races when the takeout on the Pick 3 is five points higher than on a win wager. I won’t distract you with the detailed math, but these results allow him to generate an ROI of positive 5.4% rather than an ROI of negative 8%, even though his win percentage on the Pick 3 is only 2.98% (.31 times .31 times .31). But, if the takeout rate is raised to 23.68% his profits disappear.

The math shows on his Pick 3 wagers, if the takeout is raised one percentage point, his return on investment drops about two percentage points. Since the takeout rate in our example is raised by three percentage points, our handicapper’s ROI will drop six percentage points (to zero).  This could cause him to cease wagering (for profit) altogether.

To illustrate this point with actual numbers we can use our Del Mar data to illustrate the effect. Let’s say someone had a very lucky day and hit all eight of the Pick 3 wagers offered on the day and invested a total of $200 to do it. With the current takeout rate, the bettor would have received $418.90 which gives results of an ROI of 109% versus the return with the increased takeout rate of $402.80 and an ROI of 101%. In this example, the result is a hit of 8% in profits.  As I said earlier, the underlying math would indicate a loss of about 6% on average across all tracks and all Pick 3s. The point is, a significant swing in ROI would likely result in such players looking for other ways to “invest” their money.

Our handicapper decides that enough is enough. He thinks the takeout rate should be lower, instead it is raised. He thinks that all-weather tracks are safer for horses and more fair to all styles of runners, but Santa Anita is reverting back to dirt. He is intrigued by certain aspects of peer-to-peer wagering, but that is being discounted by the racing industry as well. He decides to quit betting after 20 years of playing virtually every weekend at the track and via his ADW account throughout the week.

Given the very real scenario of our handicapper, and the general economic principle that when demand is down an increase in price is probably going to be detrimental to business in the long run, let’s take a look at how the proposed takeout increase in California is likely to play out. These figures are based on my personal, but I believe “educated” opinion. The data is again taken from our day at Del Mar. It includes: the projection which is the estimated change in handle from our current Del Mar day, the takeout rate, the size of the Pick 3 handle for the day, and the estimated total return to the government, tracks, horsemen, etc.

The No Change row shows what happened this year for our Del Mar day. Let’s be optimistic and assume overall handle will stay flat going forward. The next row is a conservative estimate of what I think will happen if the proposed increase of 3% is implemented. Los Alamitos recently raised takeout and a decrease of 27% in handle has been the result, when overall handle declined about 10%. So the “net” effect was a 17% decline. As you can see, less money will be returned to purses, etc. I actually think the drop will be even greater. The next row is my conservative estimate of the effect if the takeout rate for the Pick 3 was lowered to 15% instead of increased as proposed. The 33% rate is taken from the recent increase in handle on the California lottery when they reduced the takeout rate on scratcher tickets about five percentage points. Since the Pick 3 customer is more focused on ROI than the typical lottery customer I think an increase in handle of 50% is actually a fairly conservative projection. In my opinion, this is a much likelier way to increase purses rather than the proposed increase in takeout rate.

Raising prices when demand is down is not a good strategy for long term growth. Increasing the takeout percentage is not going to increase purses in the long run. Whether a bettor is highly conscience of his Return On Investment or not, he starts to notice when he is coming home from the track with less and less money, until he finally quits going. The horse racing industry needs to find ways to increase handle in order to prosper. If we don’t do that the future looks bleak. Owners, trainers and others in the racing industry need to focus on coming up with ways to increase handle, rather than trying to only increase purse levels. Increased purses with decreased handle will be a losing proposition in the long run. Increasing the takeout rate will just add to the ever declining wagering handle statistics and the downward cycle will continue.

Craig Walker
TrackMaster Senior Product Development Specialist

We want to hear from you! Leave a comment by clicking the “Comment” link directly below.

TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.

Saratoga hosts the “Midsummer Derby”, the $1,000,000 Grade 1 Travers Stakes on Saturday. Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver is entered as are Ice Box, Fly Down, First Dude and late developers A Little Warm and Trappe Shot. With de-facto division leader Lookin at Lucky passing this race, the assembled three year olds are looking to pickup a little cred here. It’s one of the most wide open Travers in recent memory, so be sure to get value if you’re going to be wagering on this one.

Supporting the Travers is a nice group of stakes races…the $200,000 Grade 2 Ballston Spa has a wide open field of nine going 8.5 furlongs on the Inner Turf. Scolari is an interesting longshot as the Mott/Desormeaux team has been doing very will in stakes races…the $250,000 Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes kicks of an all-Grade 1 Pick 3, with Informed Decision expected to the choice of the betting crowd…The $250,000 King’s Bishop features a showdown between D’Funnybone and Discreetly Mine.

On the West Coast, Del Mar hosts the $1 Million Grade 1 Pacific Classic . The seminal race of the seaside meeting features a couple of top turf horses going for the big money on the Polytrack. The Usual Q.T. won the Grade 1 Eddie Read Handicap during the first week of the meet, and skipped the Arlington Million, where he would have been one of the betting choices, for this race instead. The ageless Awesome Gem won the Hollywood Gold Cup in his last start and makes his fourth start in this race. The field also includes last year’s winner Richard’s Kid, along with top older males Battle of Hastings, Temple City, and Dakota Phone…supporting the Pacific Classic are the $250,000 Grade 2 Del Mar Mile and the $100,000 Grade 1 Pat O’Brien Stakes.

In case you need a quick refresher…speed ratings normalize a horse’s finishing time across all different tracks and track conditions using a complex mathematical formula . They allow us to analyze a horse’s particular performance in a race simply and easily, without having to worry about the size, shape or condition of the track. Speed ratings are extremely valuable for comparing horses in order to help determine who might be the fastest for today’s upcoming race. Horses that raced identical times can have speed ratings differ greatly because of when and where they were raced. This is where the advantage of having these ratings comes in handy.

Thoroughbred horse players long ago figured out the value of speed ratings in their handicapping. In the early days, players who had access to these figures made money, and lots of it. As the years went by, the cat was let out of the bag and the knowledge about speed ratings and how to use them to pick out real contenders at the races spread throughout the masses. Now practically everyone uses them on a daily basis and the playing field has been leveled, leaving handicappers to search for different money making angles and statistics.

So why are harness handicappers as a group so far behind the times when it comes to using speed ratings? For more than 10 years now speed ratings and class ratings have been available in all TrackMaster past performance products. Additionally, for those who are looking to take their analysis a step further we offer those all important power ratings to help pick winners in the enhanced versions of our products. More recently, TrackMaster speed ratings are increasingly appearing in simulcast programs throughout the country. But the question remains, is anyone paying attention to them or even using them?

TrackMaster was recently asked to participate in an online harness handicapping contest sponsored by Tioga Downs in which our computerized selections that are largely speed rating based would go up against a group of other computerized as well as pen and paper handicappers. Going into this challenge with the knowledge that our harness ratings across all tracks have produced quite nice returns on investment over the years, we were excited to see how things would turn out. Excited, but not surprised that we have been out in front with very positive returns.  If you’re interested in the details, check out the current standings.

The “rub” is in the numbers.  The ROI on our speed-rating-based numbers in harness racing far exceeds that of our thoroughbred equivalents.  This can only be if the ratings are underutilized, given that the ROIs greatly exceed random betting and, in harness racing, they have been positive in the aggregate year in and year out, despite 15% to 20% win takeouts.  They questions is WHY are they so underutilized?  The answer likely lies in the fact that harness horsemen, which represent more than an insignificant part of the handle, are relatively set in their ways.  Just listen to the talk around any track.  “Hey, did you hear so-and-so’s colt went in “53″ at the Meadowlands?”  That is truly about as meaningful as hearing, “Hey, did you hear the Yankees scored 4 runs yesterday?”  Players that play without the power of Speed, Class and Pace ratings as part of their handicapping mix should adjust their over-the-air antennas and try to tune in to these valuable tools.

We’re confident our harness speed ratings, class ratings and power ratings will help you make more money at the track. Now get out there and start picking more winners!

We want to hear from you! Leave a comment by clicking the “Comment” link directly below.

TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.

Arlington Million Day is a day that horseplayers look forward to. A trio of Grade 1 races on the grass with big fields and horses coming from all points on the map. The “big” race, of course is the Arlington Million which features reigning US Turf Champion Gio Ponti (winner of the Million last year as well), a heavy favorite to repeat. The consistent Just As Well and enigmatic General Quarters rate the main domestic threats. A pair of Euro-shippers, Tazeez, and Summit Surge (IRE) figure to have a big say in the outcome…The $750,000 Beverly D. Stakes looks to be a wide open affair with any of the 10 fillies and mares entered having a legitimate shot. Rainbow View is the tepid 4-1 morning line choice, the up and coming Hot Cha Cha could make a breakthrough here. We’re going to give a slight push to Treat Gently (GB) with the Juddmonte/Mott/Desormeaux connections. Eclaire de Lune is a sentimental choice, being owned by the man who rebuilt Arlington after a fire in 1985 in a race named for his late wife, and trained by the man who won the first Million in 1984 with John Henry..Rounding out the turf trio is the $400,000 Secretariat Stakes for 3-year-olds where Paddy O’Prado will be an overwhelming favorite.

Saratoga has the Grade 1 $500,000 Alabama Stakes as Saturday’s feature, and what a matchup of Blind Luck and Devil May Care. The first named will try to run down the other in the stretch, the rest are running for peanuts. In a small field like this the edge has to go to ‘Devil who has more tactical speed, but Blind Luck has shown the ability to close off of any pace and we think she’s a better filly anyway. No value here but will be a great race to watch.

The Grade 1 $300,000 Del Mar Oaks field was not available at the time of writing but was expected to include Evening Jewel.

In other races of note, I Want Revenge shows up in the $300,000 Grade 3 Phillip H. Iselin Stakes. He might have been the favorite in the 2009 Kentucky Derby but was scratched the day of the race.

A betting exchange is basically a system where a person on one side is willing to offer a bet at a certain price and a person on the other side is willing to take that price (or vice versa). This peer to peer system has the possibility of opening up a new type of wagering market, where bettors try to lock in an edge on their wagers. This would introduce a new kind of bettor, the technical trader trying to gain a small edge by exploiting marginal advantages. This type of market can be created because of the lower takeout that is implemented in the betting exchange system when compared to the traditional takeout rates of parimutuel markets. These new types of investors will many times be people that are currently not involved in betting on horse racing at this time, but will become involved because of the motivation provided to make a profit via the betting exchange.

The betting exchange also opens up another new market of “during race” betting. There is currently no other way of making bets while the race is running (please keep your jokes and sarcastic remarks to yourself), so this is a brand new market which shouldn’t be any threat to take away betting from current wagering. “During race” betting also gives a bettor trying to hedge his bets another avenue to pursue his goal of locking in a profit.

The linchpin for all of this to work properly is that the betting exchange needs to do a thorough job of tracking and policing wagering activity. If something doesn’t seem “above board,” safeguards must be in place that allow a quick and efficient resolution to any problems. A proper betting exchange knows that wagering integrity is a key to their success and this will be a priority for any system that is put in place.

One of the arguments that is heard against the betting exchange model is that less will be returned to the tracks and horsemen because of the much lower takeout rate. I believe this is not really a justifiable argument for many reasons. The betting exchanges are based upon win betting and currently the win pools typically make up less than 20% of handle. A majority of current horse players that make bets to win will still do so just as they do now. They will not want to get involved with the intricacies of peer to peer wagering. As stated above, much of the handle on the betting exchange will be “new money,” from people with an interest in technical trading that currently don’t follow racing, and wagering from veterans that want to take part in the “during race” betting. Also, some of the newcomers could add directly into the parimutuel pools to take advantage of discrepancies between odds in the exchange and the parimutuel odds, or they could become involved in pools other than the win pool as well. All of this adds up to virtually no downside regarding the current pools and a chance at a significant upside from the betting exchange monies.

As an aside, raising takeout is definitely not a good long term strategy for the racing industry.  If California racing decides to implement the rumored increase in takeout, it is sure to have a detrimental effect on wagering handle. Implementing ideas that lower the cost of the wager to the bettor, such as a peer to peer betting exchange, is one of the ways to increase wagering handle. Raising takeout is sure to have the opposite effect. The proposed increase is effectively taking away ten percent of a horse player’s current returns. Let’s hope this rumored proposal never comes to fruition. If it does, I believe whatever percentage of decrease in handle California racing would have had next year will at least double due to the takeout rate hike.

Craig Walker
TrackMaster Senior Product Development Specialist

We want to hear from you! Leave a comment by clicking the “Comment” link directly below.

TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.

Back to the Track is a weekend to celebrate harness racing in all its forms: as a sport enjoyed by fans, as a challenging game played by handicappers and as a livelihood earned by the hard-workers on the backstretch. On Friday and Saturday (Aug 14 and 15), you’re invited to put down the remote, log off your computer, or finish the chores early and come back to the track to enjoy a day of harness racing.  This national promotion is designed to get new fans to sample the excitement found only at the harness races, as well as welcome back those who may not have attended the races for some time.

With on-track attendance on the decline in recent years, the goal is to simply remind everyone that going to the harness races remains an exciting form of entertainment. Each of the harness racetracks that will be offering live racing this weekend will make fans feel welcome by offering special incentives and attractions. This includes the introduction of some brand new wagers.

A $50,000 guaranteed pool national pick-4 wager based on races at four different harness tracks will be part of the weekend event. The guarantee ensures that the pool will be deep enough for big and small bettors alike to dive into. Picking four consecutive winners in races from four different tracks in less than an hour is sure to bring some excitement back to the races. The pick-4 will be a $1 minimum bet and feature races from Meadowlands Racetrack, Yonkers Raceway, Balmoral Park and Northfield Park.

Also on Back to The Track Night, Monticello Raceway and Tioga Downs have joined forces to offer the betting public a series of wagers which is being dubbed “Dueling Doubles.”  The bet will be a daily double with the first leg from Monticello Raceway and the other from Tioga Downs.  In an effort to create extra excitement, four dueling doubles are being offered. They will encompass the first, third, fifth and seventh races from both racetracks.

To celebrate this great event and to help out fans tackle the new wagers, TrackMaster is providing free past performance programs and expert selection reports for all tracks racing this weekend. Click here to access all the free stuff on our special Back To The Track website.

We want to hear from you! Leave a comment by clicking the “Comment” link directly below.

TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.

Three of the premier Grade 1 races of the Saratoga race meet take place this weeekend. Three year old fillies vie in the $250,000 Test Stakes. Franny Freud would have been the favorite here but was injured and retired on Friday. Now the race looks pretty wide open. Pica Slew has become the de facto morning line choice, sharp handicappers might keep an eye on the action on Christine Daae who could provide an upset at a bit of a price.

The $750,000 Whitney Handicap has a compact field of six with Quality Road, the leader of the handicap division at the moment leading the pack. His stalking speed should be tough here as he can be placed on the lead or off it and still finish well. We’re looking for a big effort from Musket Man to prove he belongs with the big dogs. Blame rounds out the top contenders with 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird still seeking a victory since that upset last May.

On Sunday Bribon heads the $250,000 Albert G Vanderbilt Handicap where he’ll be challenged by Gayego, Mambo Meister and Iowa invader Majestic Perfection, who recently set a Prairie Meadows track record in the Iowa Sprint Handicap with a scorching 1:07.24 clocking.

Del Mar has the $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch Handicap on tap, but the big question was whether or not Zenyatta would attempt a three-peat or sit this one out. She’s not real fond of the Del Mar strip and trainer John Sherriffs was non-committal at the time of this writing. Stay tuned.

Sunday Del Mar cards the $150,000 Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes, a major prep for 2-year olds for the closing day feature, the Norfolk Stakes. Entries were not available at the time of this writing.

The $750,000 Grade 2 West Virginia Derby has come a long way. Once an ungraded $100,000 event, last year attracted the Kentucky Derby winner, and now has apparently become a prep for the Travers. Red-hot trainer Jerry Hollendofer saddles Skipashot, winner of the Swaps Stakes earlier this year. Lexington Stakes winner Exhi is also in the field, with recent Iowa Derby winner Concord Point expected to draw most of the betting action.

This “Super Bowl” of harness racing is for three year old trotting colts and is at a distance of one mile around the oval at The Meadowlands racetrack. Unlike other major stakes for three year olds, such as the Kentucky Derby for Thoroughbreds, this race is run with eliminations and then a final. This past Saturday 24 contenders raced in three separate elimination races to determine which of them would be moving on to the finals. Pilgrims Taj took the first one with a speed rating of 91, Lucky Chucky cruised to victory with a speed rating of 92 and Cassis earned the top rating of 94 in winning his elimination race. These winners plus the other top finishers will return to race in the Hambletonian final this week. You can be sure all of the horses will be going all out trying to reach that ultimate prize and claim the trophy.

TrackMaster will have the full complement of past performances and selections for the entire Hambletonian day of racing from the Meadowlands available for purchase on Thursday of this week. Analyze how the big race is likely to shape up with our F.A.S.T. Sheets or Pace Past Performances, then see what the experts have to say by looking at TrackMaster Greg’s picks.

Another yearly tradition, the TrackMaster Harness Handicapping Challenge is again wrapping up for this year with big money on the line.  Coinciding with the Hambletonian final is the finals of our 8 week long competition to see who the best harness handicappers around are. Like the Hambletonian eliminations, during each weekly round of the contest we took the three highest finishers and sent them on their way to the finals. This upcoming weekend should be an exciting one for the 30 players who will battle it out for $3,500. If you didn’t get a chance to participate this year, then mark your calendars for next year.

$10,000 Mobile Development Challenge

Hot off the presses!  $10,000 is up for grabs in our 2nd “Development Challenge”.

Last year we held a very successful Software Development Challenge and based on its success, today we are pleased to announce the launch of our Mobile Application (“App”) Development Challenge.   We are looking for developers to create Apps for Thoroughbred and/or Harness racing, featuring a total cash prize of $10,000. The winning developer will receive $5,000 for first place; the second and third developers will receive $3,000 and $2,000, respectively.

Just like the last contest, developers will be furnished with sample data from TrackMaster Plus (extensive entry files) and TrackMaster Charts (detailed results files) to design, test and optimize their Apps for use in mobile devices such as iPhones and smart phones with the Android operating system.

“We recently concluded our initial ‘Challenge’ asking for developers to create unique software programs designed around our data and it was a big success,” said TrackMaster president, David Siegel. “With the popularity and market penetration of phones like the iPhone, it was an easy decision to make mobile Apps the focus of this second challenge.”

Registration for the contest will be accepted through October 1, 2010. Final submissions of the applications are due by March 1, 2011, and winners will be announced on or about April 15, 2011. Interested developers can visit the TrackMaster Mobile Application Development Challenge web site for additional information.

Best of luck!

We want to hear from you! Leave a comment by clicking the “Comment” link directly below.

TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.

The “other” Grade 1 race on the weekend tab is the $500,000 Diana Handicap at 1 1/8  miles on the grass at Saratoga. The field is led by 2008 Champion Turf Female Forever Together, who will be challenged by Proviso and Maram.

Also at Saratoga on Saturday is the Grade 2 $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes which looks like a pretty wide open field of nine going 9 panels on the dirt. Keep an eye on Steinbeck, who is making his first US start for the Aidan O’Brien stable. Belmont runner up Fly Down might be the one to beat here, but is by no means a mortal lock. Also worth some longshot potential is undefeated Stormy’s Majesty who looks like he’ll be a big factor as a late blooming 3-year-old.

Del Mar has one Grade 2 race on tap this weekend, the $200,000 San Diego Handicap which has attracted a pretty nice field of older males including Richard’s Kid, Tres Borrachos, Battle of Hastings, Mythical Power and our pick in this one, Dakota Phone.  Most of these guys are prepping for the $1M Pacific Classic on August 28.