Run-Up Data Now Accounted for in Equibase Speed Figures
Although the data was made available back in May, we still get questions regarding the run-up data found in our past performances and charts. The basics of this new data element was discussed in a previous post. Since a full year’s worth of data has now been recorded (Equibase chart callers began recording the run-ups last October), we are now able to incorporate this data to increase the predictive performance of the Equibase Speed Figures and Pace Figures.
The run-up distance can have a large influence when calculating speed figures and especially when calculating pace figures. In the extreme, some run-up distances for the same distance, on the same track and the same surface, can vary widely. This is especially true for the turf races due to the measures taken to protect the grass from getting worn down. At a track such as Laurel Park for example, a mile and a sixteenth race on the turf can have a run-up distance as short as 20 feet and as long as 100 feet. By having the run-up distance recorded, the Equibase Speed Figures and even more so the Pace Figures, can be calculated much more accurately than ever before.
One of the advantages of having an automated process calculate speed figures rather than a real, live person, is that it makes it easier to test and implement any new data elements that are introduced. (Other advantages include the ability to easily create figures for all tracks, consistency in the figure making process, use of mathematical principals to determine unusual Track Variants, and the absence of any personal bias that might cause one to increase a horse’s figure because of the horse’s reputation or the reputation of the horse’s connections.) The good news is that the inclusion of the run-up data in the figure making process, has made the Equibase Speed Figures and Pace Figures more accurate. We are currently in the middle of the process of putting the newly calculated figures in place. We are updating all of the figures from October 1st, 2008 forward. The update should be completed by the end of the week.
This update comes just in time for the Breeders’ Cup and all of the TrackMaster and Equibase products will have the improved figures. The updated figures should help you pick more winners, more often on Breeders’ Cup day and throughout the year.
Craig Walker
TrackMaster Senior Product Development Specialist
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October 19th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
I am glad to see this is now going to be included.I have not invested much time into the new data or am I sure how to use the new data. As someone who makes FPS pace numbers all I have done is simply add in the additonal feet for the run up.Can you provide how you will use this new data?
October 19th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
The run-up distance is now reflected in both our Speed Ratings and our Pace Ratings. We have derived a formula for basic thoroughbred acceleration and now “normalize” the Speed Ratings to the industry average run up (which is about 42 feet) so the overall Speed Rating average is the same. We convert the feet to time and adjust. For example, if there is a 6 furlong race at aqueduct that has a run-up of 12 feet, we convert this 30 feet of difference (to the average) and basically speed the race up to account for the fact that the horses were running a little slower than normal at the start of the race. Similarly, if the run-up was 72 feet, we would slow the race down some as the horses had more of a running start than average. I cannot tell you the particulars of the algorithms as they are proprietary, but this should give you the general idea. Of course, all time adjustments are ultimately reflected in Speed Rating points so for different distances, measurements are on an apples-to-apples basis. Hope that helps.
October 19th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Yes this gives me a better understanding. Changing the feet to time is a great concept and making the ajustments then really makes sense. I wanted to thank you for explaining.
October 22nd, 2009 at 9:26 am
I know T-breds are timed from a running start and quarter horses from when the gate opens (which means no run up), but I was wondering if there is any consideration given to gate placement when speed figs are made for quarter horses? This seems even more crucial since the timer begins immediately, and a difference of even 4 yards is quite a bit in a race of say 300 or 220 yards. I remember reading about a track record in a 440 yard race and before it could be declared official as a new record, they had to measure the actual distance from the gate to the wire. And if I remember correctly, it was something like 21 feet and a few inches more than 440 yards.
October 22nd, 2009 at 9:42 am
Run ups are not recorded for QH races as the timer, we are told, starts when the gates swing. I have no knowledge of the instance you site where you say there WAS effectively a run-up. I agree that any kind of run-up would have a material effect on final times (and Speed Ratings), and the shorter the race, the more a run-up is material. I suggest you contact AQHA racing and inquire directly about this matter and post their response.