Betting Against “The Sure Thing” or Why They Are Called “Bridge Jumpers”
Written by trackmasterplus on December 21, 2009 – 12:25 pm -When the betting public sends off horses as prohibitive favorites, it presents a dilemma for the horseplayer, both for the win/exacta bettor as well as the player who plays multi-race bets such as the Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 6. The question is whether to look for value in betting on other entrants, pass the race, or design some sort of exotic wagering strategy whereby you create value by virtue of the structure of the bet. If the favorite wins, unless an extreme longshot fills out the exacta, trifecta, or superfecta, the result is usually a low payoff, often an underlay situation.
Smart bettors look for overlay situations and bet small to win big. All tracks have minimum payouts in the Win, Place, and Show pools, so the lowest possible payoff on a bet is $2.10 or 5%. When a horse looks like the proverbial “mortal lock” on paper, there are occasions when someone will dump tens of thousands of dollars into the show pool, hoping to make a quick 5% on their money. It should be noted that more often than not these “bridgejumpers” DO successfully cash these bets. However when the horse they back fails to hit the board the payoffs can be astronomical, and the strategy is ridiculously simple:
Bet all the other horses in the race TO SHOW.
There are only two things to look for to seize these opportunities. First and foremost, there has to be an imbalance in the Show pool. This is easy to spot if you are at the track and looking at the tote board. If you bet online, your betting service should provide pool totals as well. Most times bridgejumpers will dump their wager through the windows early, so you’ll have plenty of time to react.
Let’s look at two extreme examples from 2009 and why an astute bettor may have used this strategy in each race.
August 22 Humboldt County Fair in Ferndale, California-
Ferndale is one of the smallest race tracks in the country at 1/2-mile around. The tight turns and quality of the racing make for some interesting trips, and horses that can hug the inside rail have a big advantage. Like most fair tracks, there is an abundance of odds-on payoffs, but not in this case.
The feature race of the day was a $4,000 Starter Allowance at 5 furlongs with five starters after the outside horse scratched. Keep in mind that at Ferndale 5 furlongs is a TWO TURN RACE. The 4-5 morning line favorite was Snatch the Cash, who had been pretty dominant racing against both thoroughbreds and quarter horses on the California Fair Circuit and at Los Alamitos at distances of 5 furlongs and under. Snatch the Cash’s PPs showed he had won 8 of his last ten races and one of the losses was by a neck to a quarter horse that had beaten him before. There were plenty of reasons to think that Snatch the Cash would at least hit the board in this small field, and the bridgejumpers hit the track in full force. Of $118,695 in the final show pool, $111,061 was on Snatch the Cash. If there was ANY chance that Snatch the Cash would fail to hit the board the show payoffs were going to be huge. If you were going to bet this race to make money, the only logical play is to spend as little as $10 and bet the other five entrants to show. Thunder One, beaten by Snatch the Cash earlier in the summer at Stockton, had drawn post 2 in this race and Snatch the Cash was outside in post 5. Thunder One got the jump on ‘Cash out of the gate and got the best position on the inside, forcing ‘Cash into a speed duel, Thunder One kept on to the wire and won by 4 but ‘Cash faded to last, triggering show payoffs of $97.40, $172.60, and $138.60 for a total payoff of $408.60 for your $10 investment.
At 1-9 odds there is simply no way to play the race and generate any kind of decent profit.The only logical play is to play every other horse in the race to show ($10) and hope that ‘Cash fails to hit the board for some reason. It’s a small investment for a potential big return, and if ‘Cash does finish in the money you’re still going to get back $4.20 of your $10 investment.
According to a report by the Times-Standard of the North Coast, one bettor was ready to take advantage of the situation, betting $30 to show on Lendell, who finished 2nd and paid the most in the show pool, making that ticket worth $2,589.
September 13, 2009 Emerald Downs:
In the Diane Kem Stakes, the 3-10 favorite, Knight Raider finished out of the money triggering a record show payoff for the track. With such a prohibitive favorite, there is simply no way to properly play the race for profit. A $1 one way exacta wheel with Knight Raider on top pays maybe $30-40 with the longest shot on the board running 2nd for an $9 investment and with the likelihood of the two favorites running 1-2 and a loss on the wheel bet. In this particular race, it would be worth taking a chance, however remote it looked on paper, that Knight Raider might get beat. The first factor is that this is a race for 2-year-olds, and most 2-year-olds run as fast as they can for as long as they can, and the other factor was the presence of speedball Nifty’s Crystal going two turns for the first time. On the chance those who hooked up in a speed duel the “right” bet in this case would have been to bet the rest of the field to show. When the speed duel materialized Knight Raider put away Nifty’s Crystal which could have been expected, but was unable to hold off the rest of the field. The show payoffs came back $187.00, 108.60, and $156.40 and the astute bettor following this strategy would have cashed all three tickets for a total of $452.00!
While these are two extreme examples of this technique at work, you’ll be surprised how often this situation arises. Most payoffs will be in the $100-200 range due to smaller pools. When the bettor sees this kind of “heavy” show betting activity he would be well served to simply bet all the other horses in the race to Show.
To sum up the strategy:
- Look for an imbalance in the show pool
- Find any reason why the heavy betting favorite might not hit the board.
- Bet ALL other horses in the race to SHOW.
If you are familiar with Twitter, there is a “Bridgejumper Alert” service freely available. You’ll have to set up a Twitter account and submit your request for approval but if you plan on taking advantage of these situations this type of social networking is invaluable.
When looking at heavy favorites, look for value…if you can’t find it pass the race. If you can, take a chance and you might be handsomely rewarded!
J Stone
TrackMaster Junior Handicapping Analyst
Posted in Thoroughbred Races, Thoroughbred Racing
December 21st, 2009 at 1:32 pm
Can you show that any of these ’systems’ have a positive ROI?
December 24th, 2009 at 9:16 am
It should be, play all other than the prohibitive favorite. What reason would you have to play the horse who pay $2.10?
April 19th, 2010 at 6:42 pm
It is also important to note that with the advent of net pool pricing, even when the favorite does come in, the other horses often pay a decent price, usually $3-$4 or so. When Zenyatta won at Santa Anita March 13, the other horses paid $9.40 and $4.20, and there were 7 other horses, so it would cost $14, and you get back $13.60. 40 cents is a small price to pay for the chance (albeit a small one) for a big payoff.