Stop Betting
Written by trackmasterplus on December 22, 2008 – 9:00 am -I have been around enough tracks to hear the grumbles on the apron when a 7/5 favorite at “post time” ends up paying $3.80 to win. At some smaller Standardbred venues, I have seen odds drop from 4/1 to 3/2 when the horses are at the half-mile pole. There are other winners, of course, that go from 5/1 to 8/1, but people usually don’t remember those quite as well.
The issue is really one of technology. The computer systems, protocols, communication devices, etc. used for moving monies around the complex simulcasting world are simply old and slow. The perception of past posting (wagering after the race has gone off) resulting in great “last click” shifting of odds is, simply that, a perception. Every once in a blue moon there is an actual system issue that allows wagerers to bet after a race has started, but in 99.99+% of the cases, the drop in odds is simply the system playing “catch up.”
That said, in a game where fans rely on integrity of the pools, any perception that the wagering is less than fair, will hurt fans’ interest in the game. That raises the first question: Is this perception a problem? (I would love to hear your comments on this one). Let’s assume that it is a problem. How can it be addressed?
Well, one answer is obvious, fix the “system.” If every wager were instantly reflected in the tote totals, there would be no problem. I don’t have the technical savvy to know if this is possible. I do know it could be much faster than today, but I also know that it would be expensive, and likely not profitable for the totes or the tracks to undertake such an upgrade. Of course, if their businesses were at risk if they did not make such an upgrade, then the economic assumptions would change, and it would likely be more profitable to upgrade than not to upgrade. However, since fans have not protested loudly, the tracks and tote companies are likely making the right decisions here, at least the right short-term ones.
A far cheaper (on the cost side) solution is to simply stop the wagering earlier, allowing time for the “final click” of the tote board around the time the race starts. Tote companies and tracks would likely incur little to no expense, so the question would be on how much, if any, revenue would they lose.
I will devote the rest of the blog to taking a closer look at this question and again, would love your comments and options.
One argument would say that with less time to wager, the wagers would be less. A counter would be that people, over time, would adjust their habits and wager a little earlier. In fact, one could argue, particularly in harness racing (see below for special discussion on harness racing). In New York, unlike a movie or ballgame, if you attend the ballet or opera, they will not let you in after an act has begun. If you snooze, you lose. I don’t know if it has always been this way, but I can attest that “sold out” shows have very, very few empty seats. Patrons know the rules, and adjust accordingly. In the 2008 election in California, more than 50% of the voters voted absentee, versus about 5% in 1970. After 8pm, no polling place will allow you to vote. The population has responded by changing their voting methods as not to be shut out. While these examples are not exactly on point, they show that over time, consumers will adjust their habits. In this case, one may further argue that they may adjust quickly as they perceive value (fixed pools after the race starts) as a result of their collective change in habit.
I can also see the other side of this one. Given 20 minutes say from the “make official” time of the previous race, to the off time of the next race, if you reduce that by say, 3 minutes, there is less time to handicap and ultimately less time to wager. If this is the case, then revenue may decline.
In 2002, Hollywood Park requested permission from the California Horse Racing Board to stop taking wagers before the start of the race. That request was rejected. Other Churchill owned tracks that were racing at that time (Churchill, Calder and Hoosier) planned to implement a wagering stoppage when the minutes to post went to zero (about 2 minutes before the actual start of the race). Unfortunately, I could not find, in the archives, when these policies apparently went back to wagering up to the time of the race.
Let me spend a paragraph or two on Standardbred racing, as the situation there is slightly different. In thoroughbred racing, wagering ceases when the bell rings (gates open). In harness racing, it starts when the race officially begins, which is when the starter yells “go”, at the start line of the race. However, the “action” starts one-quarter mile earlier during the controlled run up. If a horse breaks stride during this run-up and you wagered on it, most likely, you lose. If you were standing by a terminal with the wager all set awaiting your final “confirmation”, you are best served by standing there, watching the 40 second or so run-up, and betting just before the starting line making sure your horse is on stride. If not, you would abort your wager and you would have a huge advantage. In this case, being at the track is a huge advantage (or at least watching the action on live TV, not on any delay).
For those that are looking for a solution that does not involve investment in newer computers and systems, here is one alternative. For thoroughbred racing, cease wagering when the first horse enters the gate, specifically, when he is “locked in” to the gate. The starter could push a button and freeze wagering. Since a gate load is around 2-4 minutes, this would give ample time for the tote system to “catch up”. In harness racing, wagers could be ceased the moment the starting gate moves. This would be a discrete time, roughly 40 seconds before the official race begins. Another possibility would be to have the track post a start time of the next race for all to see, and then freeze wagers say 2 minutes before that. They could go to an official count down announcing 5 minutes left to wager, down to 1 minute, then in 10-second increments.
Some could argue that being at the track should have some advantage to encourage attendance and to give horsemen more money (on-track wagers generally give horsemen the highest percentage relative to off-track or on-line wagers). That said, even if some stop wagering rules were enacted, on track attendees still would have the advantages associated with reading horse’s body language on the track, seeing them in the paddock, having real time weather information, etc. As I mentioned above, one could argue for harness racing, the run-up advantage for on-track patrons is so huge, it may be a disincentive to wager at all on-line. Perhaps a stop wager rule before the gate rolls would actually increase on-line and off-track wagering as it would remove this big advantage.
As I mentioned earlier, we would really like to hear from you. Think about these questions when you comment:
1. Is the perception of late changing pools a problem in your opinion?
2. Assuming the tote companies/tracks cannot justify a systems upgrade at this time, do you think some kind of stop wagering rules should be adopted?
3. If so, what would you suggest
4. Finally, specifically for harness racing, even if there is no perceived issue with late changing pools, do you think wagering should stop when the gate rolls?
I look forward to your feedback and opinions.
David Siegel
President – TrackMaster
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Comments (25) »Posted in General Industry, Harness Racing, Thoroughbred Racing
December 22nd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
I have “heard” that machines do not lock at some tracks at “off time”. I’ve heard this from “tellers”. If this is true, obviously there is a “deeper problem here”.
December 22nd, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Mr Mike:
While there have been some documented technical glitches, I think what you have heard from tellers is much more likely the exception rather than the rule. As fans, we would like such exceptions to be zero, and until the pari-mutual industry can work together to achieve a new standard, more than likely not much will happen. In the thoroughbred world, Equibase (our parent company) is a shining example of what can happen when an industry gets together for the common good. That said, with over 50 tracks and 3 tote companies, such change will be difficult to achieve.
December 22nd, 2008 at 3:08 pm
I really have no problem understanding the limitations of the systems that compute the odds.
I think its the older people who remember “Bell ringing” who are still bothered by the possibility of such things still occuring.
December 22nd, 2008 at 4:04 pm
The reason I and many others bet at the last moment possible is that many of us have odds related systems. Stopping a few minutes earlier does not help. A system that changes the odds instantly is the only answer. I quit going to the track 20 years ago because of the odds changes after the race went off.
dbell
December 22nd, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Mike,
There is a perception that post betting is going on and with true handicappers looking foe an edge, it is discouraging to bet on a horse
at 5-1 and see it’s odds drop to 7-2 during the running of the race.
Updated software is critical and the other issue is that tracks have
different times between races. For Example in New York at Belmont and Saratoga you have at least 30 plus minutes between races. It would be a blessing to cut off betting at 25 minutes and run the race before 30 minutes. At Monmouth the post time between races is 22 minutes and same at Philly Park. So the overall conformity around time between races must be dealt with before you cut off the betting time. Every track wants to maximize handle. Perception of Racing could not be worse and some type of standard rules around this issue and the major issue, drugs needs to be addressed.
December 22nd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
I have had to “wait” till the end my entire life because of the huge drop in odds on the last flick-i hate it-If all betting was forced to end upon the first horse entering the gate or post time, whichever comes FIRST !
December 22nd, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Many, many horses drop significantly in odds during the race while running on the front end. I’ve seen 4-1 go to 5-2. The majority of these horses win particularly when the track is speed favoring. I’ve no doubt that someone is betting after everyone else. I can’t claim that it has stopped me from wagering, but of course I know it should.
December 22nd, 2008 at 5:30 pm
First: Stop wagering earlier is a no brainer to me. When betting on simulcast or online post time is just an approximation. A race never goes off at 2:55 pm. It is never that and usually later. So stop the betting at 2:55 like the program says. The only group thinking the longer the window is open the more money they get is the track and that is foolish. If I want to bet a race I make the time count. I’ve never missed the bell yet.
Second: Winners going from 5/1 to 8/1???? I haven’t seen it happen yet. Value betting is only a concept in imaginations. At even the smallest track the amount of money that can pour in at the bell (whenever it is) is incredible. A Thursday night at Turfway or Mountaineer can easily get 20 to 30 times the amount of the win pool from the actual track. I never get a 6/1 or 7/1 bet. It always ends up 9/5 in the last 30 seconds. Talk about perceptions, that’s my perception of what this industry is doing to the better.
December 23rd, 2008 at 5:57 am
Picking winners is hard enough…..While I look for “value” on the odds board, if the horse wins I’m happy. I thought there was a rule in some states that the betting stopped after the 2nd to last horse went in the gate. There is so much wagering coming in from simulcast, internet, etc its no wonder it takes a few minutes to catch up….in fact, except for some major meets….Saratoga, Santa Anita, Keeneland, etc – there are more people wagering away from the track than at it. Have you been to Philly Park or Aqueduct on a Wed afternoon – you might be the only one in the grandstand watching. I’ve seen ontrack handles of $75,000 @ PHA….it used to be $1 mil + on a slow day! If you want to see odds change at the last minute, go to the “Dogs”…back before simulcasting and it was the only gane in town you would see what looked like a good bet at 20-1, and when you get back to your seat……7-5. Good Luck.
December 23rd, 2008 at 10:05 am
Post time odds drop is not a big deal to me, but then I’m an infrequent bettor and not much of a chalk player. It’s more of an aggravation. My usual thought is that someone dropped a bundle on “My” horse, which could be a comforting thought that a big spender agrees with me. If I don’t cash the ticket the whole thing is moot anyway. The tote systems probably need a few moments to “catch up” with last minute wagers. Why we wait till late is something to think about. The more I like a horse the earlier I usually bet. A small change in the odds shouldn’t change my mind if I really like the horse and the value is there, which it should be.
December 23rd, 2008 at 12:58 pm
These tracks with the small handles see the odds go crazy a lot. I bet Doug Snyder at the Meadows one time at 6-1. Well, he gets up at the bright lights and I figure I might get 4-1. I look up and he went off at 30-1 because they loaded on other horses at the bell. Granted, it doesn’t happen often but it did happen. Two years ago, I think it was, at the Meadowlands I bet Pierce at 5-2. Some guys from another state, Oregon I think, bet 49,000 on a horse with no chance at the bell. They go down the backstretch and Pierce is double digits and he wins and pays a huge number. The mystery horse ran last and to this day I haven’t heard an explanation for that late bet on that mule. I bet Balmoral Park and it’s common to bet something at 5-1 and you end up with 8-5 down the backside. It does work the other way, however, so it doesn’t bother me since I’m a small bettor anyway. I’m down 80 grand with GE – THAT bothers me. I can see, however, that the big bettors who demand value get the shaft when they end up with 8-5 after they bet at 4-1. As far as the trots, I used to stand at the window at the Meadowlands and if the 1-5 didn’t make the gate I had time to get bets in on the bombs. I bet on the computer now and I can’t cancel even if the horse is a mile off the gate. It’s painful to watch but that’s the way it is. That’s why they call it gambling.
December 23rd, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Please consider the question of could race tracks benefit in profits by closing the electronic betting down a bit earlier to “click in” a final tote board reading. Perhaps if the Opera or Ballet senario where people are held responsible to the rules of no entry after the performance begins is implemented for simulcast betting, there may be a slight hump of a learning curve that would possibly play out in “lost wages” only for a short while until simulcast betters get it. Get with it or lose the bet. Betters will certainly do the former and “get with it” because they like to bet. The second part is tracks may gain more patronage ending up in more monetary support if simulcast betters don’t want to be cut off the races earlier, if local, they may go to the track to bet. Going to the track directly to bet would get them into live action, keeping more dollars at that track while providing the facilities to do simulcast betting as well.
E & simulcast bets need to be cut off before the race begins.
December 24th, 2008 at 4:52 am
i worked for the nys pari-mutuel tax dept for 12 years, mostly thru the eighties.this was in the infancy of simulcasting.as for the host track, there was a state official in the computer room to get the pools at the start of the race.no added winning nos. could be added after the gate opened. we would manually calculate the prices(a futile effort as the computer would always be right),but the main point is the pools were in our hand before the finish of the race.in this tech era, horse racing’s reputation is very fragile. we MUST do everything possible to keep the integrity of the wagering system in place.cut betting off at the moment the first horse enters the gate is a good idea.also there must be a requirement that the systems have to be updated so each facility has their pools sent to the host track immediately.the software is there, if the will is there.
December 24th, 2008 at 4:58 am
Let’s make it simple. Each track has a posted Post Time. At the Meadowlands, the races usually go off about two minutes later. What is so hard about closing the windows at the posted post time?
December 24th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Post betting is just an illusion and those who complain are usually the poorer handicappers who believe they need an “edge”. I wager about 6 to 8 minutes before the post, get a coffee and enjoy the race. When the race is on, I can see what the odds will be if my horse wins. That is good enough for me. Also, I’ve been around the “game” for more than thirty years and endorse what has been happening. I would hate to see harness racing influenced by the gripers.
December 24th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Interesting article. I have enjoyed betting the “off” for probably over a quarter of a century. It’s especially strong at 1/2 mile harness tracks with 8 starters. I bet gimmicks not straight.
Statistically you will probably be able to pinpoint a more exact number, but on a 1/2 mile track a majority of winners typically are 1,2,3,4 or in the flow on the outside by the 1/2. To be in this position at the 1/2 these horses typically are leaving.
As you mentioned breaking trotters can also be eliminated or even more important one can call gimmicks with horses that not breaking and leaving. It’s important to know the style of driving and flow at the track your betting and also to properly eliminate or consider horses that have great gate speed that falter.
I see betting the off as an extension of sound investing in horse racing. First you handicap then you watch warm ups and post parades, then you watch the pools and finally you look for an advantage in the off. If I like a horse or race I bet early, but I also try to also bet the off.
December 25th, 2008 at 8:35 am
I think you are all missing the obvious. The reason the odds change during the race is because of all the different sattelite betting sites having their wagers added in and the odds recalculated.
December 25th, 2008 at 9:41 am
I couldn’t agree more with your blog. I bet harness racing exclusively(mainly the Meadowlands and WEG and NEVER bet odds on horses.Too often 6-5 shots or even money favorites wind up 4-5 or even 3-5 after the race begins. I believe it is just late money and the tote playing catch-up rather than a conspiracy involving the tracks as you said, but it vexes me when my 6-5 shot closes at odds on.I understand that the high rollers might balk at the machines leveling the playing field especially in the case of horses breaking while the gate is moving which is a relatively common occurence, but this is an integrity issue as far as I am concerned.
December 26th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
The only solution is to stop betting at whatever point would be required to insure that ther are no changes in odds after the gate is opened. Also, it is amazing in this high tech world that the vast majority of money bet off-track isn’t reflected at all until very late in the betting process.
December 29th, 2008 at 5:02 am
It’s my impression that there are whales out there with computer programs that analyze the odds and make very large bets at the last possible second if the program finds the right overlay. If that’s true, it’s disgusting to the low-tech intuitive handicapper that makes up the majority of racetrackers, and could lead to a situation where the computer geeks are fighting over each other’s money. That’s a situation that wouldn’t last long as the take-out would make it uneconomical for them to continue. Handle would drop dramatically and that would perhaps be the end of the game. Somebody should think about how far the technology in this game should go.
December 29th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Simulcast betting should be included in the actual betting pool to even and equate the odds.
The problem with horseracing is still not addressed without stricter penalties enforced on jockeys and trainer.
Computerized betting programs will become more acceptable in the future, especially on large carryovers and multi-race betting .
December 29th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Erich:
Just to clarify, nearly all simulcast wagering is reflected in the tote board at the live track and on all ADW platforms. In the USA, all wagering is “common pooled” today.
December 29th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Trackmasterplus, While it is true that almost all of the money bet is finally reflected in the on-track pools, my beef is that the off-track money does not show up until the last couple of minutes and to a great degree after the start of the race. Technology exists that would allow these off-track bets could be added when they are bet as on-track bets are (updated every minute).
December 30th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
I bet exclusively OTB and there are several situations where betting must be “gated”. Two year olds are normally fractious behind the gate and the loading can be a bet saver. Loading faults are another — I have seen assistant starters do everything but tie a horse into the gate to get a horse loaded only to see him come out sideways.
And yes, I have dropped a gate bet of a thousand on a horse at 5-1 that I had on my personal line at 6-5 knowing full well what my bet was going to do to the ontrack odds.
If tracks want to help they can timeline betting, say Track A knows that a huge pool of money is going to drop into the pool from experience at gate time, they can announce that on average 20% or 30% of the final pool will not present until after the gate opens. This helps me bet because I might have to alter my bet expectations. If it were an average of say 70%, you might as well close your eyes and stab at the program.
January 2nd, 2009 at 6:31 am
For the present time, STOP WAGERING should be instituted effective one minute to post….I’m a professional player & it’s very frustrating to be expecting say , a $350 payoff, and after your pick wins you end up with a $280 payoff…..I don’t think systems upgrades will happen anytime soon