Beginner’s Luck or “Kate the Great”?
Written by trackmasterplus on July 26, 2010 – 9:00 am -Those in the racing industry often hear the following questions. How do we get a younger audience to get into horse racing? How do we stop the continuing decline in handle? How do we get people to come back to the track? In previous blogs, we have outlined ideas to help promote our great game; this narrative reflects some of those concepts.
I take some time off this time of year, so I can go to all of the races in Stockton and ten of the fifteen racing days at the Alameda County Fair. Each day before the races at Pleasanton, there is a seminar that I go to hosted by track announcer/TVG personality Frank Mirahmadi and local handicapper Dennis Miller. They have a special guest each day (jockey, handicapper, trainer, etc.) helping them analyze the card. On this particular day, jockey Chris Russell was the special guest. At the picnic table I was sitting at there was a young woman in her early twenties sitting next to me. She didn’t have any handicapping materials, but she was busy taking notes and marking down different horses. After the seminar, I told her that none of my friends were coming out to the track today, so I had some extra box seats if she wanted to use them. She said her boyfriend and his mom were joining her later and she would gladly take the seats. I introduced myself and I found out her name was Kate. This is the story of her day at the races.
Kate said she had only been to the races once before and wanted to ask me a few betting questions. She said that betting to win didn’t seem like a way to make much money so could I help explain some of the other bets. After going over the bets (had no good answer on why there is still a quinella when you can just do an exacta box) , I advised her to bet $1 exacta boxes and to take a chance on the 50 cent Pick 4. You can pick two horses in each race and it will only cost $8.00. I took the elevator upstairs to go to my seat and watch the first race, an exciting mule event. (Those who know me know that I love to bet the mules and that we actually have speed figures for them in our TrackMaster products.) The mule that was my secondary key on my Pick 4 tickets won the race. A couple minutes later, here comes Kate. She was excited because she hit the exacta with her $1 box. Her return was $17.30. Such an innocent beginning.
Kate shows me her 50 cent 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 Pick 4 ticket, total investment $8.00. I told her I didn’t have the price horse that she had in the third leg (a Dennis Miller pick), but other than that we had similar selections.(Except I had multiple tickets and invested much more than $8.00.) Jockey Chris Russell (from the seminar) brought in the favorite in the second race, an Arabian race which is his particular specialty. Kate and I are both alive on our Pick 4 tickets. Kate’s method of selection was based on sifting through the information she heard in the seminar and consulting a list she had of the leading jockeys. The next race was my downfall as Chad Schvaneveldt gave a nice ride on the favorite and led at the top of the stretch only to get caught at the wire. By the slimmest of margins I was knocked out of all of my Pick 4’s, but of course the horse that won was the long shot Kate had. She was now alive to two horses in the final leg. One of the horses was a long shot that Mirahmadi mentioned and it was a price horse that I liked as well. I had gone every day to the races in Stockton and this horse had made the most impressive stretch move of any horse at that meet. Her other horse was the logical, heavy favorite, ridden by top jock, Russell Baze. It was a boat race as Baze was up by a large margin by the top of the stretch and coasted to a ten length victory. Kate’s 50 cent return on the Pick 4 came to $172.30. She left to collect her winnings and to make some excited phone calls to report her windfall. She came back to the box just before the start of the 5th race. She decided to pass. A good move as none of the horses she liked did very well.
We now went to the bar, where Kate bought us a couple of beers, and we headed back to the box seats to formulate her next plan of action. I told her that the 50 cent Pick 5 starts in the next race. Since she was on a roll, I said you have to play it since it will only cost $16.00 to put two horses in each race. First leg she says she likes Baze’s horse and a price horse that I like. Check. Next race, Baze’s horse and the second favorite (who I like). Check. The next leg was a tough race with the biggest purse on the card. There was much discussion about this race at the seminar and Chris Russell offered some insights on how a jockey can end up on a certain horse in a race based on his agent’s decisions and the relationships with different trainers. Although many horses were mentioned, Kate ended up on the horses that were my top two as well. Baze again and a horse ridden by Schvaneveldt that had encouraging Equibase Pace and Speed Figures and was morning line 6 to 1. In the fourth leg, Kate had the #6 and the #8 selected. I told her that I really liked the #7 Fishin With T Ball to win it from gate to wire. I suggested that she put all three horses in since they were the most logical contenders and the cost of her ticket would only be $24.00. In the last leg she picked the favorite and the second favorite which were my top two picks as well.
Baze wins the first two legs of the Pick 5 on the logical favorites to keep Kate’s streak alive. Kate’s boyfriend Luke, and his mom showed up just after the Pick 5 started. I joked that if she lost, we would know who to blame. Schvaneveldt brings in the next race; three down two to go. Now the next race is where my “expertise” came in handy as Fishin With T Ball hung on by a desperate nose to hold off the #8. Just one more race to go. Either the 4/5 favorite or the 5/2 second favorite, a Lloyd Mason trainee ridden by Kayla Stra. In a previous blog, I had touted the success of Lloyd Mason on the fair circuit and had caught some nice priced horses already by this time. Kayla gave a nice ride and safely held off the late threat of some random interloper. Kate’s 50 cent Pick 5 returned $282.50!
Many positive steps that have been taken by the racing industry can be addressed by this story. First of all, we have been a strong proponent of fractional wagering for a long time. For some reason even though the technology was available, many in the industry have been slow to implement this option, but surely the switch to a 50 cent Pick 4 allowed for Kate’s day to be possible. The 50 cent Pick 5 was a new wager at the fair this year and I think it is a good idea as well. I have family and friends who go to the races a couple of times a year, and they bet the 10 cent superfectas, trying to catch a big payoff on a small investment. Kate told me that even if she hadn’t of won, she thought it was important to have the 50 cent minimums. That way, beginners have the confidence to take a chance on a harder bet since the cost is minimal.
To me, the Pick 3, Pick 4 and Pick 5 are the best wagers for the industry to use to introduce a drastic cut in takeout. Lowering these bets to somewhere in the 8-10% range can help kick start an increase in wagering handle. These are the types of wagers that many takeout conscious handicappers gravitate towards already, so the low takeout levels would make them even more attractive. Many horsemen will tell you that purses need to be bigger, which I can agree with, but bigger purses without an increase in handle will just provide a slow death for horse racing. If there is no money generated from wagering, government entities have much less incentive to subsidize purses to our industry in tough economic times. Those monies will be used to support other things that the general public deems more important. Peer to peer wagering is another option that needs to be seriously considered right now. It would open up a whole new world of during the race betting.
Many of us forget what it was like to go to the track for the first time. The free handicapping seminar is a staple at some tracks, but most tracks only offer an occasional seminar. Handicapping seminars, a special breakfast to watch the morning workouts, a ride in the pace car, and informational packets for the first time visitor are all good solid marketing ideas. Kate was spurred by the enticement of the free seminar which she only knew about because of the promotion on the Alameda County Fair website.
Lastly, Kate almost didn’t come out to the races because of a negative experience she had at the races when she was fourteen, the only other time she had ever been. She has the personal experience of riding/training/showing horses, so she has a close bond with them. The day she went to the races, a horse was injured and had to be put down (behind a screen) on the track. As all of us know, that is always tough to handle. The importance of limiting catastrophic breakdowns to as few as possible, can never be emphasized enough. I’m glad our industry has taken major steps in the last few years to studying and implementing changes to help keep horses and those who ride them as safe as possible. Also, great strides have been made in taking care of horses after their racing careers are over. I know others disagree, but I believe all-weather tracks currently lessen the chances of catastrophic injury and in the long term can lead the breeding industry back to producing sounder horses.
The racing industry is at a crossroads right now. Major thoroughbred and harness tracks are under the threat of closure. Decisions have to be made that will allow for the long term growth of the industry. This means that increasing wagering handle has to be a top priority. As they say, you need to lead, follow or get out of the way. If you buy the myth of a broken wagering model, constantly whine about all-weather tracks, believe that takeouts are at a proper level or rebates are only for people who bet millions of dollars, you need to get out of the way. This industry will not survive if we continue to see a 10% drop in handle year after year. Let’s help give the horseplayer a fighting chance by providing as many resources as possible to help them win more money more often, and enjoy the excitement of a day at the races.
Was Kate just lucky, or does she have a knack for picking winners? To me handicapping the races and betting is a test of data management. Kate did a very good job of analyzing information and separating the wheat from the chaff. She went with her intuition, made good decisions, and was rewarded accordingly. She is definitely interested in finding out more about racing and handicapping now and maybe some of the people she shares her story with will as well. Whether she ends up being a once a year fan or a racing die hard, she will always have her undefeated day and all of the fun, excitement and positive energy from her experience.
Craig Walker
TrackMaster Senior Product Development Specialist
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TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.
Posted in General Industry, Harness Racing, Thoroughbred Racing
July 27th, 2010 at 7:33 am
Craig Walker…Love the article,you have the right idea,keep up the fine work.
roger@hanaweb.org
July 27th, 2010 at 7:45 am
Craig have you seen Pace Pals in the Hollywood Park program? They make it easy for newcomers and veterans to bet the races. When we had them for the all the tracks in the program handle for all simulcast tracks went up. The industry should give more info away for free like Hong Kong does. Their site is amazing.
July 27th, 2010 at 6:32 pm
Thank you, Craig, for an insightful article. Let me echo Craig Peterson’s comment about Pace Pals in the HP program: it’s often helpful. Also, at HP’s customer service counter, it offers the PacePal hard copy as well as other handicapping assists, for free!
But, your Kate story is instructive (and your picture of the horse running free on some beach reminded me that I always wanted to take my mare to do the same thing…forgetting of course that as an inland horse she would have known that the surf was even worse that than the cougar in the tree she ALWWAYS knew was there!)
Thanks,
Sandra
July 27th, 2010 at 7:56 pm
Well done Craig.
I agree with you on veritical wagers and reducing the t/o to perhaps 12%.
Disagree on the Peer to Peer wagering. Just a bad idea all around.
Track marketing departments focus time and effort in “recruiting” new players. That effort needs to be tripled. Tracks need to be clean and safe for all players and families.
Looking forward to your next article.
Your Fan.
Steven Kolb
July 27th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
Hello First i think the odds board should be moved in to where the drivers cannot see the odds before the race it would make for so much more fun and a suprise for the jockeys when they do come in with a longshot. They do have the advantage of seing the morning line and that is all they should see….lets start there…
July 28th, 2010 at 3:18 am
This article is odd, if imbued with glimpses.
Craig, you begin by asking what can be done to lure a younger audience into horse racing. Eventually, you get to the heart of Kate’s issues with the current state of horse racing. She doesn’t like to watch the animals break down and get euthanized. She doesn’t want the horses to suffer. Although this is your heroine’s qualm, you spend 80% of the print discussing more affordable wagering propositions than have historically been available. Great! You’re on to something there, but it’s a peripheral something.
The core appeal of the sport is the horses. They are beautiful animals, each with a personality and individual style. That’s exactly why fans, such as myself, are first drawn in, and later appalled to learn that far too many of these venerable athletes wind up in slaughterhouses.
You provide copious examples and intricate details of these new, positive betting schemes. By contrast, you address Kate’s actual complaint in a single, cursory sentence: “…great strides have been made in taking care of horses after their racing careers are over.”
Conveniently, you provide no examples of these great strides. Congress banned horse slaughter within the U.S. in 2007, but untold thousands of thoroughbreds are shipped across the border to Mexico and Canada, where they are slaughtered for meat or pet food. The gruesome details are just a Google search away.
If great strides have been made, they have been made by horse rescue outfits. Sadly, their limited resources enable them to save but a fraction of the animals. Meanwhile, insiders continue to pawn off these exceptional creatures, their bread and butter, for a few dollars more, while the horse racing industry turns a blind eye. Even casual horse racing fans know that there’s something rotten in Denmark. Is it any wonder that horse racing continues to die the slow death you speak of?
Until the industry becomes more responsive and responsible, you should fully expect young people to keep their distance, and rightfully so.
July 28th, 2010 at 4:02 am
Craig, I bet if I went to the track with you and Frank Miramadi I’d cash a few tix also ! Free admission and program for the host track might be a start to bringing in more people.
July 28th, 2010 at 6:03 am
IMO and as thoroughbred owner and 50 something racing lover who grew up in New England, I think to reach the next generation we need Education, Education, Education. Deciphering The Daily Racing Form is a daunting task and takes time to focus on what’s important and what isn’t, it’s like a craps table, once you learn what bets to avoid, it’s a relatively easy table game. And then the industry must upgrade it’s racing facilities, I attended opening day at the Spa last week, I’ve been going there since the 70’s and I have to say the whole Saratoga charm thing is “played” I will stop short of calling the place a dump, but not too far short, the place is old and tired, the old 19″ TVs hanging from the ceiling have to go, the last TV I owned of similar vintage couldn’t even be given away on Craig’s list for crying out loud, then the tote board in the infield wasn’t functioning properly. And if you wanted a Smoke Shack burger you needed to wade through ankle deep rain water. I remember my 1st trip to Churchill Downs for the 1994 BC, and came away thinking that the plant was old, tired and overrated, Kentucky Derby notwithstanding, I went back in 2006 for the BC with some trepidation and couldn’t believe the difference after the face lift, it was an enjoyable experience and I look forward to going back. Today’s generation of young people didn’t grow up going to Suffolk Downs in the afternoon and then Wonderland Dog Track at night for action as I did, they get their action by playing poker on line, watching the WSOP of poker on a big screen LCD HDTV or visit Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, these are big well lit clean establishments for live action. So in summary, help the next generation undertand what’s going on and maybe have on-line webinars on how to read the racing form and how to place a bet when they go to a betting window and then provide the necessary upgraded technological tools at the track for them to follow the action. Just my opinion.
July 28th, 2010 at 6:41 am
What is peer to peer wagering?
July 28th, 2010 at 7:21 am
Beginners Luck does play a role in WHY anyone may choose to continue to attend the races. It worked for me, way back in 1970.
With respect to attracting more and new fans,horse racing is really up against it I think that we can agree that this sport is completely out of the mainstream. Outside of the triple crown events, mainly the Derby, news coverage is minimal to non existent in major media markets.
In the Chicago area, we NEVER see a race on TV on any of the the nightly news outlets unless it is the Arlington Million.
How can any new fans be developed if they are not even aware that this sport exists?
The Illinois lottery is the main and most profitable form of “gambling” for our state. Why is it so popular, given the low rate of return to the player? It’s great to have .50 Pick fours but if very few people are participating in a sport that is considered by the mainstream media to be barely marginal, no growth can possibly occur.
New fans are being created by personal reference only .
The time invested in a “day at the races” is the same as a day at the ballpark or golfing. It is certainly not any more expensive for the casual player. so why don’t more people participate? It is not in the mainstream consciousness as an activity!
Racing has only itself to blame. Given the lack of national jurisdiction and rules and any type of cohesive plan, things are not going to get better. Do you know that at this time, Illinois players with ADW accounts cannot bet on Saratoga or Del Mar, plus quite a few other tracks?
I certainly cannot get to the track or OTB anytime I want but at least let me use the Internet!
July 28th, 2010 at 8:48 am
George,
Peer to peer wagering is the use of an internet betting exchange that allows gamblers/horse players to bet amongst themselves. With one side offering odds and the other side accepting those odds. Currently, the most well-known company in this area is Betfair, the parent company of TVG.
Craig
July 28th, 2010 at 9:03 am
Santiago,
We have discussed in previous blogs advancements in safety thru The Thoroughbred Safety Committee established by The Jockey Club, the reporting of the Equine Injury Database system and the NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance. Helping retired race horses was addressed in this blog:
http://blog.trackmaster.com/?p=1544
Great strides have been made and more positive steps will be taken with these efforts.
Craig
July 28th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Programs such as ‘Turning for Home’ could be instituted at race tracks so folks will know they are betting at a track that cares for the humane treatment of the horses. Here’s an article on the program: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Society/2010/0621/A-horse-rescuer-who-saves-thoroughbreds-headed-to-slaughterhouses.
Are there any plans for this? I have a rescued Thoroughbred (Star on the Water) who was on her way to Mexico and I would love to help establish such a program at Louisiana Downs in Shreveport, LA.
July 28th, 2010 at 3:32 pm
Craig,
Thanks for taking the time to reply. I read the article you tagged. Good stuff. That ex-jockey Sandy agreed, and posted a couple of comments about the need for more rescue.
Naturally, I want to see the complete eradication of American horses slaughtered abroad, so the improvements you cite are welcome, but not enough. NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance, for example, is an excellent model. I read its Code of Standards. The program consists of voluntary membership. Ultimately, its sound and responsible approach serves as a recommendation for conduct for horsepeople around the country, but has no teeth. When push comes to shove, equine matters defer to state law, and that’s exactly what the Alliance hopes to change.
I’d like to see a national supervisory agency with the power to enforce the paradigm offered by NTTRA-SIA. Uniform, national, enforceable standards would go a long way towards protecting retired thoroughbreds, by law.
It’s great that so many good samaritans are stepping up, but reliance on the kindness of strangers is no substitute for the legal, actionable protection of thoroughbreds.
Again, the better regulated and ethical the sport becomes, the more young folks will stand up, take notice, and support the industry.
-Santiago
July 28th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
Thank you, Craig, for the insightful article. I agree with your thought’s. We also must integrate technology into the experience. Tracks should have ability for patrons to bet via their cell phone through a wifi network? Maybe have the horse racing APP on your iPhone which allows you to make your bet, perhaps show the picks from the folk’s calling the race and
perhaps some suggestive bets with the actual horse numbers for the race your are about to bet? Everytime my wife and I take someone to the track they get turned off by the betting line and the complexity of requesting the bet they want…..we now use the electronic wagering machines which are great….that technolog could be integrated into a cell phone application……after all…young adults are integrated with everything in their life…..it’s almost understood these days….
July 28th, 2010 at 6:48 pm
I thought Greg made some outstanding comments and Bemo touched on TV which I think was clearly the beginning of the downfall. As for me, my parents took me out there when I was around six and it has been an obsession ever since, now in my early 40’s I shake my head to think it has taken this long (Let’s face it I’m half way home now myself) to get the live feed from my hometown track piped in-house, Dish Network recently added a large number of live feeds for $50 monthly if you can afford it. The tracks missed the boat with television altogether, they should’ve put the live feed on at least cable TV in the 1980’s for pete sakes AND for free, people couldn’t even bump into horse racing by accident. It was out of sight out of mind. The writing was clearly on the wall by the time cable TV went mainstream and yet the tracks still by and large dragged their feet, squabbled and stone-walled, persisting with local blackouts while their geriatric fan-base was literally dying off in droves. Many of us who grew up going to the track with parents /relatives became alienated by the drug problems in racing as well. Drugs in racing are nothing new but as steroids and other usage like lasix and bute became mainstream legal that simply added more randomness to the game which could ill afford it because of the high takeout. What does racing have going for it today? Same thing as in 1950, think Ainslie’s Complete Guide from the early 70’s. i.e The past performances, the puzzle, the spectacle and most importantly the cash payoff. Certain people just aren’t going to get into it but you have to put it front and center, which means on TV and in front of enough eyes, which means free. I think it’s too late quite frankly, I think they already lost it because the older generation had difficulty passing the torch due to the sheer inaccessibility of the sport, always running during the day hurts but then never on TV is a killer. With that said I hold out hope that people will get nostalgic someday and there might be a resurgence for the game. Even through all the bad I still see it as the greatest game on earth.
July 29th, 2010 at 5:54 am
The fastest way to intorduce horse racing to a new audience and to bring it into homes via television would be to tie it in with the lottery. If there was a way to play the daily number that was then determined by a race each day at the local track, that would be shown on television each night when they pick the daily number, many people would see an actual race and have a bet on it, without handicapping or deciphering the form. As for the love of horses vs. gambling and betting as the reason so many people are involved in horse racing, it is about the gambling for most people. I am a former owner and from a horse racing family and I love the horses, but the fact is, it is the wagering that drives the sport unless you’re one of the swellls.
July 30th, 2010 at 7:09 am
Extremely lucky she is on a “short” ticket to catch that many winners in a sequence. Win betting is a no win situation. Too much good analysis drives prices down. Industry should promote Horse Racing as a better way to play the lottery. Certain #s — choices— are more likely to come in. Certains #s in a race, realistically have “no chance” to come in, no matter how many times you run that race. So the “pick five” is really like a cash 5 lottery, with some bias to the numbers drawn. A chance to get a return for your money invested, rather than the usual “0″ with the lottery. The industry should push this concept in a small brochure, or page in the program. We have to get the lottery player back to the track !!!!! Keep up the good work !
August 2nd, 2010 at 11:40 am
Luck and then some. There is only one way to gain audience. Young or old, doesn’t matter which. Older audience is more $$$ and more stable. Either way, the key is “advertise”. I have written several letters to USTA, Chester Downs etc and there seems to be the air “Really?”
If you asked anyone when is the “Run for the Roses” most people know it is the Kentucky Derby and it is in MAY.
They also know it is the first leg of the triple crown. If you ask anyone, even experienced handicappers, “when is the first leg of the Standardbred Triple Crown for Trotters? Pacers?
Most people will give 2 answers:
1. I didn’t know there was a Triple Crown for Harness Racing
2. I didn’t know there are pacers and trotters.
I recently had some Harness Racing Pictures framed at a Frame shop located approximately 1/2 mile from Harrahs Chester Downs. She had been there for 30 years. She was totally surprised when I informed her that a harness racing track was at Harrahs.
A large part of Harrahs problem is no audience. Why? Because it is a Casino with a race track not a RACE TRACK with a Casino….and they don’t care. I talked with director of racing about the starting time 12:45.
He wasn’t concerned and even stated that they do not care about the attendance, they care only about the simulcast. With this mindset, horse racing will never get the audience becuase it is becoming more and more unknown. Most people don’t know what an exacta or a pick 6 is and many are still under the impression that most horse races are fixed and ALL harness races are fixed. In past years Tbred was the daytrip and sulkys the eve trip and it worked well. Now, instead of tracks working with each other they all compete against each other and we all know what the result is or will be.
The “powers to be” need to talk to each other and rather than trying to grab every dollar, work with each other to save the sport. As far as the “young” crowd, they are too cyber-oriented to handicap. Handicapping is both an art and a science and they just don’t have time for it. They need software. Both PC and Android types, and they need to know that the chances for profit at a race track, especially a harness track because of the short fields is so much better than the slots, poker and blackjack because YOU have input as to your selections and there are SUPER prizes. Didn’t mean for it to be this long but I really have issues with Casino Tracks.
Thanks for listening.
Mike Perfect Trip Handicappins Software
August 4th, 2010 at 6:55 am
Thanks for the email, always interested in the latest news and look forward to Sat. final. I remember the races at Goshan, NY. Goodtime Park.