Are You Harnessing The Power?
Written by trackmasterplus on August 23, 2010 – 11:00 am -When it comes to handicapping the horses, there is a belief out there that the Thoroughbred players as a group are more sophisticated and knowledgeable than the harness players. One clear example of this is with the understanding and use of speed ratings.
In case you need a quick refresher…speed ratings normalize a horse’s finishing time across all different tracks and track conditions using a complex mathematical formula . They allow us to analyze a horse’s particular performance in a race simply and easily, without having to worry about the size, shape or condition of the track. Speed ratings are extremely valuable for comparing horses in order to help determine who might be the fastest for today’s upcoming race. Horses that raced identical times can have speed ratings differ greatly because of when and where they were raced. This is where the advantage of having these ratings comes in handy.
Thoroughbred horse players long ago figured out the value of speed ratings in their handicapping. In the early days, players who had access to these figures made money, and lots of it. As the years went by, the cat was let out of the bag and the knowledge about speed ratings and how to use them to pick out real contenders at the races spread throughout the masses. Now practically everyone uses them on a daily basis and the playing field has been leveled, leaving handicappers to search for different money making angles and statistics.
So why are harness handicappers as a group so far behind the times when it comes to using speed ratings? For more than 10 years now speed ratings and class ratings have been available in all TrackMaster past performance products. Additionally, for those who are looking to take their analysis a step further we offer those all important power ratings to help pick winners in the enhanced versions of our products. More recently, TrackMaster speed ratings are increasingly appearing in simulcast programs throughout the country. But the question remains, is anyone paying attention to them or even using them?
TrackMaster was recently asked to participate in an online harness handicapping contest sponsored by Tioga Downs in which our computerized selections that are largely speed rating based would go up against a group of other computerized as well as pen and paper handicappers. Going into this challenge with the knowledge that our harness ratings across all tracks have produced quite nice returns on investment over the years, we were excited to see how things would turn out. Excited, but not surprised that we have been out in front with very positive returns. If you’re interested in the details, check out the current standings.
The “rub” is in the numbers. The ROI on our speed-rating-based numbers in harness racing far exceeds that of our thoroughbred equivalents. This can only be if the ratings are underutilized, given that the ROIs greatly exceed random betting and, in harness racing, they have been positive in the aggregate year in and year out, despite 15% to 20% win takeouts. They questions is WHY are they so underutilized? The answer likely lies in the fact that harness horsemen, which represent more than an insignificant part of the handle, are relatively set in their ways. Just listen to the talk around any track. “Hey, did you hear so-and-so’s colt went in “53″ at the Meadowlands?” That is truly about as meaningful as hearing, “Hey, did you hear the Yankees scored 4 runs yesterday?” Players that play without the power of Speed, Class and Pace ratings as part of their handicapping mix should adjust their over-the-air antennas and try to tune in to these valuable tools.
We’re confident our harness speed ratings, class ratings and power ratings will help you make more money at the track. Now get out there and start picking more winners!
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TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.
Posted in Harness Products, Harness Races, Harness Racing
Weekend Graded Stakes Action – Five Grade I Races Highlight Schedule
Written by trackmasterplus on August 19, 2010 – 3:30 pm -A weekly overview of major stakes races around the country.
Arlington Million Day is a day that horseplayers look forward to. A trio of Grade 1 races on the grass with big fields and horses coming from all points on the map. The “big” race, of course is the Arlington Million which features reigning US Turf Champion Gio Ponti (winner of the Million last year as well), a heavy favorite to repeat. The consistent Just As Well and enigmatic General Quarters rate the main domestic threats. A pair of Euro-shippers, Tazeez, and Summit Surge (IRE) figure to have a big say in the outcome…The $750,000 Beverly D. Stakes looks to be a wide open affair with any of the 10 fillies and mares entered having a legitimate shot. Rainbow View is the tepid 4-1 morning line choice, the up and coming Hot Cha Cha could make a breakthrough here. We’re going to give a slight push to Treat Gently (GB) with the Juddmonte/Mott/Desormeaux connections. Eclaire de Lune is a sentimental choice, being owned by the man who rebuilt Arlington after a fire in 1985 in a race named for his late wife, and trained by the man who won the first Million in 1984 with John Henry..Rounding out the turf trio is the $400,000 Secretariat Stakes for 3-year-olds where Paddy O’Prado will be an overwhelming favorite.
Saratoga has the Grade 1 $500,000 Alabama Stakes as Saturday’s feature, and what a matchup of Blind Luck and Devil May Care. The first named will try to run down the other in the stretch, the rest are running for peanuts. In a small field like this the edge has to go to ‘Devil who has more tactical speed, but Blind Luck has shown the ability to close off of any pace and we think she’s a better filly anyway. No value here but will be a great race to watch.
The Grade 1 $300,000 Del Mar Oaks field was not available at the time of writing but was expected to include Evening Jewel.
In other races of note, I Want Revenge shows up in the $300,000 Grade 3 Phillip H. Iselin Stakes. He might have been the favorite in the 2009 Kentucky Derby but was scratched the day of the race.
Comments (0) »Posted in Thoroughbred Races, Thoroughbred Racing, Uncategorized
Peer To Peer Betting: Is It Good for Horse Racing?
Written by trackmasterplus on August 16, 2010 – 9:00 am -At the beginning of July, New Jersey’s General Assembly took the first steps in approving a peer to peer betting exchange model that has had success overseas generating wagering handle for horse racing and other sports. By limiting the wagering to citizens living within its state borders, the betting model should be able to stay clear of any federal regulations barring wagering across state lines. If New Jersey doesn’t continue to move down this path, it still seems that it is just a matter of time until some other enterprising state decides to make the move.
A betting exchange is basically a system where a person on one side is willing to offer a bet at a certain price and a person on the other side is willing to take that price (or vice versa). This peer to peer system has the possibility of opening up a new type of wagering market, where bettors try to lock in an edge on their wagers. This would introduce a new kind of bettor, the technical trader trying to gain a small edge by exploiting marginal advantages. This type of market can be created because of the lower takeout that is implemented in the betting exchange system when compared to the traditional takeout rates of parimutuel markets. These new types of investors will many times be people that are currently not involved in betting on horse racing at this time, but will become involved because of the motivation provided to make a profit via the betting exchange.
The betting exchange also opens up another new market of “during race” betting. There is currently no other way of making bets while the race is running (please keep your jokes and sarcastic remarks to yourself), so this is a brand new market which shouldn’t be any threat to take away betting from current wagering. “During race” betting also gives a bettor trying to hedge his bets another avenue to pursue his goal of locking in a profit.
The linchpin for all of this to work properly is that the betting exchange needs to do a thorough job of tracking and policing wagering activity. If something doesn’t seem “above board,” safeguards must be in place that allow a quick and efficient resolution to any problems. A proper betting exchange knows that wagering integrity is a key to their success and this will be a priority for any system that is put in place.
One of the arguments that is heard against the betting exchange model is that less will be returned to the tracks and horsemen because of the much lower takeout rate. I believe this is not really a justifiable argument for many reasons. The betting exchanges are based upon win betting and currently the win pools typically make up less than 20% of handle. A majority of current horse players that make bets to win will still do so just as they do now. They will not want to get involved with the intricacies of peer to peer wagering. As stated above, much of the handle on the betting exchange will be “new money,” from people with an interest in technical trading that currently don’t follow racing, and wagering from veterans that want to take part in the “during race” betting. Also, some of the newcomers could add directly into the parimutuel pools to take advantage of discrepancies between odds in the exchange and the parimutuel odds, or they could become involved in pools other than the win pool as well. All of this adds up to virtually no downside regarding the current pools and a chance at a significant upside from the betting exchange monies.
As an aside, raising takeout is definitely not a good long term strategy for the racing industry. If California racing decides to implement the rumored increase in takeout, it is sure to have a detrimental effect on wagering handle. Implementing ideas that lower the cost of the wager to the bettor, such as a peer to peer betting exchange, is one of the ways to increase wagering handle. Raising takeout is sure to have the opposite effect. The proposed increase is effectively taking away ten percent of a horse player’s current returns. Let’s hope this rumored proposal never comes to fruition. If it does, I believe whatever percentage of decrease in handle California racing would have had next year will at least double due to the takeout rate hike.
Craig Walker
TrackMaster Senior Product Development Specialist
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TrackMaster, an Equibase company, is your complete source for Thoroughbred, Quarter Horse and Harness Racing information. Products ranging from Thoroughbred Past Performances, Harness Racing Programs, and Thoroughbred Handicapping software to Horse Racing Picks from our experts, are provided for all levels of handicapping sophistication.
Posted in General Industry, Harness Racing, Thoroughbred Racing
