In 1982 John Gaines had a vision – one day, seven championship races bringing together the best horses in the world with all races having a purse of at least $1 Million. In 1984 that dream was realized when the very first Breeders’ Cup Day was held at Hollywood Park. In the 25 years since, one area of consternation to handicappers has been how to rate horses with only foreign race form. For the handicapper used to North American speed ratings, pace handicapping, dirt tracks, and times down the hundredth/second, trying to decipher the form of European horses running on turf courses with varying degrees of size, shape and energy requirements has left many a handicapper scratching his head. Often foreign race data gives only final time, finish position, and course condition.

Trying to rate contenders from Europe and elsewhere, handicappers had to rely on published articles and/or the excellent Timeform ratings. Often it was a guessing game. In the early years of the Breeders’ Cup it was clear that the horses who performed well in Group 1 races worldwide were competitive with North Americans. However there was no clear way to rate all horses using one rating system.

The Development Team at Trackmaster set about to tackle this problem and after years of painstaking research, a breakthrough in the Spring of 2008 led to methods to assign Speed Figures and Class Ratings to most foreign (not run in North America) races. These ratings are on the same scale as the Equibase Speed Figures and Class Ratings used in our North American past performances, so foreign entrants in North American races can now be easily evaluated. More details can be found in a prior blog post.

We’ll take a look at some of the top European contenders in the major 2009 Breeders’ Cup races and how they compare to their North American counterparts. But first a look back at last years Breeders’ Cup Classic:

2008 BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC

Europeans ran 1-2 beating the mighty Curlin, and though Curlin’s owner Jess Jackson is convinced it was the Pro Ride artificial surface that got him beat, a quick look at each horse’s last three Speed Figures might tell a different story.

Curlin was the betting favorite. He had beaten just about everything that came his way for the past two years, and his 2008 win in the Dubai World Cup stamped him as perhaps the best dirt horse in the world. Duke of Marmalade was the was the top European male of 2008 but clearly came out of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe worse for wear and ran a dull ninth in the 2008 Classic. Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator were considered top milers in Europe but despite that finshed 1-2 after passing a one-paced Curlin in mid-stretch. For those paying attention to the Equibase Speed Figures, Curlin at 4-5 was a bad bet. Raven’s Pass was certainly playable at 13-1 and paid his backers $29 to win. Henrythenavigator, also a contender on the Equibase Speed Figures, paid $22 to place. A $1 exacta box on the three main European contenders returned $159.80

A similar situation may present itself in the

2009 BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC

The 2009 Classic may draw up to three top European contenders. It may also draw the undefeated filly Zenyatta, whose dominance over her own gender and experience over the Santa Anita Pro Ride surface will give her a home field advantage. On numbers, it would appear that she may be vulnerable and the astute bettor would be advised to try and beat her – under the right conditions. Likewise, the top 3-year old male in North America, Summer Bird, will be well backed here and is by no means a standout.  The Europeans will not be as well-represented in this race as in 2008. The best of the lot, like the 1-2 finishers from 2008  is a miler – Rip Van Winkle (IRE). Lesser fancied, and likely to run in other Cup races are Twice Over (GB) and Mastercraftsman (IRE). Using the same criteria as above (most recent SR listed first), the top contenders in the Classic are:

The numbers say that Rip Van Winkle appears to be the horse to beat, and certainly looks to be the best of the Europeans. Bettors are likely to drive the odds on Zenyatta and Summer Bird down below 5-1. The other two mentioned above are likely to be overlays. And what to make of Twice Over’s 128 earned in his last race? Mastercraftsman may run in the Dirt Mile instead.

For Zenyatta fans, it should be noted that in many of her races the early pace has been excruciatingly slow, which often leads to low final time speed ratings. The pace in the Classic will be honest, and by all accounts Zenyatta should have no problem with the classic 1 1/4 mile distance. However, with jockey Mike Smith’s penchant for moving very wide into the stretch with her, and a much better cast of contenders here, she’s going to have to run the best race of her life to remain (and probably retire) undefeated.

Moving on, here’s a quick look at a two of the other races with multiple European entrants.

2009 BREEDERS CUP TURF

For the 2nd year in a row the Breeders’ Cup Turf will not have a full field. In fact it is possible that this year’s event may have as few as 7 runners led by 2008 Turf winner Conduit (IRE).

Summer Bird will likely go in the Classic. Da Re Mi (GB) is also entered in the Filly & Mare Turf (2nd preference). Clearly the North Americans are up against it here. This will likely be the easiest race on the card to handicap. There is no secret as to how this race will run. Presious Passion goes out, opens up a huge lead and everyone else tries to catch him. Conduit (IRE) and Da Re Mi (GB) are clearly the class of the field and will be the ones chasing ‘Passion home.

2009 BREEDERS CUP MILE

The impressive winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile, Goldikova (IRE), returns to defend her crown. Let’s face facts…at her best, there is no horse in the world that can beat her at a mile. However those who are looking to try have to be encouraged by the fact that she lost her most recent race, the Group 1 Prix de la Foret, without showing her characteristic burst of late speed. Here’s the field:

Awesome Gem and Colonel John have first preference for the Classic. Assuming that those who go for the bigger prize, Goldikova (IRE) again looks to be the one to beat. If she is not the filly she was last year though, the race looks wide open and the Mile is usually one race on the Cup card that is often decided by inches.

Speed and Class Ratings for Foreign Races are a vital in the handicapper’s toolbox. Armed with these exclusive ratings, the handicapper can confidently attack the Breeders’ Cup races and for that matter, any race with an entrant who has not previously raced in North America.

On a related note, we are excited to announce the availability of Timeform reports for Breeders’ Cup days.  Their in-depth commentary and bios for each of the foreign entries will prove to be a valuable tool on days when they expect a record number of horses to be shipping in from across the pond.  Look for these reports in the TrackMaster Winner’s Circle starting on Thursday.

J Stone
TrackMaster Foreign Racing Analyst

No Grade 1 races this week and only one Grade 2 race of note as we all anticipate Breeders’ Cup weekend next week.

On Saturday Keeneland cards the Grade 2 $150,000 Fayette Stakes on closing day. A field of 10 will face the starter with the role of favorite likely going to 6-year-old Parading, from the Shug McGaughey barn who will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux. Up and coming 3-year-old Blame, from the Albert Stall barn, who was runner-up to Regal Ransom in the Super Derby  has yet to finish off the board in three career starts. It should be noted that both contenders won their only previous start over the Keeneland Polytrack surface. Longshot players might consider Giant Oak, a talented former Kentucky Derby contender who’s been badly mismanaged but has shown flashes of talent; and Medjool, who does his best running on the grass, a colt who has earned excellent and competitive Equibase Speed Figures in those races and figures to be a HUGE price on the tote board.

As we head back to beautiful Santa Anita Park for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships this year, we thought it would be a good idea to look at the recent marketing initiatives enacted by the Breeders’ Cup team and get your thoughts on the success of these ideas.

Going from a one day format to a two day format was a big step for the Breeders’ Cup. This will now be the third year with the new format. Going to two days gives more of a racing festival type of vibe and allows for a much bigger handle. In the future, this format does not seem to be set in stone, so it will be interesting to see with the current economic situation, how many more years this will continue until a decision is made to pare down the number of races or stay committed to the expansion.

Last year, as opposed to this year, the Breeders’ Cup Friday was billed as a “Ladies’ Day.” One of the biggest changes was to change the name of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff to the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic. Many were upset with the name change and have voiced their opinion that the name should be changed back. The argument for keeping the name is that many people at the track, much less the population at large, don’t know what the term “distaff” means, so the new title makes it easier to understand that the race is for female thoroughbreds.

This is the first time the Breeders’ Cup has been held at the same venue in back to back years. The thought being that the Los Angeles area is one of the largest markets in the nation and that there would be increased synergy by holding the event at the same site from one year to the next. Another plus was that certain marketing agreements could be made for two years instead of a single year. Also, bad weather is virtually a non-factor in Southern California and the all-weather surface will perform well, even if there is rainy weather. Many didn’t want another repeat to happen soon after the rain-soaked, sloppy Breeders’ Cup event held at Monmouth Park. Unfortunately, even when a venue does all it can to put together a first class event like Monmouth did, the inclement weather can spoil the fun, especially on a traditional dirt surface. The connections of some horses that are skipping the event this year have voiced their opinion that the Breeders’ Cup shouldn’t have been held on an all-weather surface in back to back years. Jeremy Plonk recently contributed an excellent piece to ESPN outlining the fallacy of those jumping to conclusions about the horses that raced on traditional dirt prior to last year’s Breeders’ Cup and their subsequent poor performance on the all-weather surface.

Some owners and trainers have stated that they don’t want to run their horses on the all-weather tracks, while the connections of other horses like to train and race on these surfaces. The final verdict on all-weather surfaces is still not in, but here are some of my thoughts from last year on all-weather surfaces in general. One thing seems certain for now, when a Breeders’ Cup is held on an all-weather track, there will be increased participation from horses based in Europe. Last year a record thirty-one horses in the Breeders’ Cup had an international racing background and another strong contingent of foreign horses is expected. This definitely helps support the billing of “World” Championships. Also, the spectacular, new, state-of-the-art, Meydan Racecourse in Dubai which opens at the end of January, has just installed the Tapeta Footings all-weather surface. If an owner or trainer wants to take a shot at the winner’s share of the $10,000,000 purse of the Dubai World Cup, they will have to embrace the all-weather surface. I think that the synthetic surfaces get a bad rap from many here in the United States. I’m glad that Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, ruler of Dubai, an intelligent man with a huge stable of horses and vast resources, has not listened to any of the synthetic naysayers and has kept to the task of installing the all-weather surface at the new facility. Would anyone with his expert level of experience with horses really install a surface that would undermine the health and well-being of any of his expensive, well-bred thoroughbreds?

In August it was announced that there would be a switch from the purple saddle towels to the standard colored saddle towel system. I have been a proponent for this change for a long time and mentioned it in a previous blog posting. I don’t know how the economy and other factors will effect the overall handle, but I can guarantee that more money will be wagered with the switch than would have had the change not taken place.

After last year’s ho-hum ticket sales, ticket prices were drastically reduced for this year’s Breeders’ Cup. Also, ticket holders can choose to have a seat on Friday and/or Saturday rather than last year when they were forced to buy tickets for both days. Hopefully more fans will attend this year and handle will be higher since the savings from buying seats can be used for making wagers on the exciting race cards.

This year the Breeders’ Cup has launched a new website, Breeders’ Cup 360, which is loaded with lots of great information for the serious handicapper. You can also find Breeders’ Cup on Facebook and other information on the Breeders’ Cup website. All of these web-based efforts help promote the big day. Other promotions include a “Tweeters Cup” tie-in with Twitter and the Breeders’ Cup Classic Lottery Sweepstakes through the California Lottery.

In recent news, a proposed rotation of tracks is a possibility in the near future. This seems like a good idea since a schedule would be in place well in advance, and the host sites would be in a closer partnership with the Breeders’ Cup.

There is one last thing I’d like to mention, a new TrackMaster Marketing initiative if you will. Just in time for the Breeders’ Cup, TrackMaster has improved the offerings of two of our most popular selections reports. The Turf Club Analysts now propose a ticket to be played for the Super High Five wager when warranted, which is likely to happen on both Breeders’ Cup days (Filly and Mare Turf on Friday and the Classic on Saturday). Also newly added, the TrackMaster F.A.S.T. Sheets now offers wagering suggestions for most exotic wagers. These suggested wagers can be found at the back of the report. Tickets to be played for Exactas, Trifectas, Pick Threes, etc. are laid out for the horseplayer that wants some extra help when making exotic wagers. Perfect for the Breeders’ Cup and other major racing days when large pools offer the chance of  large exotic payouts, or any of the other days you want some solid advice when going out to the track.

Which Breeders’ Cup marketing initiatives have been a success in your opinion and which need to be tweaked or dropped altogether. Be sure to add any ideas you think would make the Breeders’ Cup become an even bigger success. Should there be a prime time, “night time” Breeders’ Cup? Should the Breeders’ Cup ever be held outside of North America? Please tell us what you would do if you were in charge of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships.

Craig Walker
TrackMaster Senior Product Development Specialist

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